Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28?

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Up (29%) · Up at 63¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28

Up63¢Down37¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 29%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$36.29

Smart Money Entry

60.8¢ → 62.5¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up63%

Down38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$835.16

Total Shares2,303

Combined PnL-$1.31

Up2 traders

Total Value$911.82

Total Shares1,439

Combined PnL+$37.6

Down — 71%Up — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDown 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpDown 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrUp 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Down 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR	Downavg 36.4¢	$788.18	$780.29	-$7.88	65% 2332-1258 (3590)
KI kingofcoinflips	Upavg 61.1¢	$720.26	$754.37	+$34.11	54% 382-327 (709)
AN Anon455	Upavg 59.2¢	$153.96	$157.44	+$3.48	56% 2584-2031 (4615)
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394ARB<$100	Upavg 48¢	$70.98	$84.64	+$13.54	59% 1008-698 (1706)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48¢	$36.48	$48.64	+$12.54
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.5¢	$34.5	$36	+$1
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 28.4¢	$21.61	$27.04	+$5.43	55% 49922-40551 (90473)
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100	Downavg 37¢	$16.8	$17.2	+$0.4	59% 21625-14927 (36552)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Downavg 29¢	$15.76	$5.59	+$1.02	56% 49119-39377 (88496)
GO gobblewobbleCTR<$100	Downavg 38¢	$5.31	$5.03	-$0.28	59% 847-591 (1438)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR

Down

Invested

$788.18

Value

$780.29

PnL

-$7.88

Record

65%

2332-1258 (3590)

kingofcoinflips

Invested

$720.26

Value

$754.37

PnL

+$34.11

Record

54%

382-327 (709)

Anon455

Invested

$153.96

Value

$157.44

PnL

+$3.48

Record

56%

2584-2031 (4615)

0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394ARB<$100

Invested

$70.98

Value

$84.64

PnL

+$13.54

Record

59%

1008-698 (1706)

Both legs:

Invested

$21.61

Value

$27.04

PnL

+$5.43

Record

55%

49922-40551 (90473)

rabadabadooCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$16.8

Value

$17.2

PnL

+$0.4

Record

59%

21625-14927 (36552)

bosonaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$15.76

Value

$5.59

PnL

+$1.02

Record

56%

49119-39377 (88496)

gobblewobbleCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.31

Value

$5.03

PnL

-$0.28

Record

59%

847-591 (1438)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDown 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpDown 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrUp 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Down 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.1%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.