Bitcoin Up or Down on November 15?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Up (67%) · Up at 63¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Up
9
Up 67%
$4.8K
-$170.3
63.1¢ → 62.5¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUp at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EA Eager47259 | Upavg 60.1¢ | $1.9K | $2.0K | +$89.24 | 50% 197-198 (395) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR | Downavg 44.8¢ | $1.5K | $1.2K | -$288.82 | 68% 182-84 (266) |
TO Tokor | Upavg 68¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$8.12 | 53% 131-115 (246) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 66¢ | $132 | $144 | +$12 | 50% 1373-1367 (2740) |
BO bosona | Upavg 66¢ | $132 | $144 | +$12 | 51% 4625-4478 (9103) |
AL almach | Upavg 66¢ | $132 | $144 | +$12 | 51% 1383-1347 (2730) |
AN Anon455CTR<$100 | Downavg 31¢ | $65.68 | $59.36 | -$6.32 | 49% 422-431 (853) |
SU suntori<$100 | Upavg 54.9¢ | $25.21 | $33.08 | +$7.87 | 46% 2702-3200 (5902) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Downavg 31¢ | $1.55 | $1.4 | -$0.15 | 46% 1461-1683 (3144) |
Invested
$1,860.83
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$89.24
Record
50%
197-198 (395)
Invested
$1,518.54
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$288.82
Record
68%
182-84 (266)
Invested
$1,104.32
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$8.12
Record
53%
131-115 (246)
Invested
$132
Value
$144
PnL
+$12
Record
50%
1373-1367 (2740)
Invested
$132
Value
$144
PnL
+$12
Record
51%
4625-4478 (9103)
Invested
$132
Value
$144
PnL
+$12
Record
51%
1383-1347 (2730)
Invested
$65.68
Value
$59.36
PnL
-$6.32
Record
49%
422-431 (853)
Invested
$25.21
Value
$33.08
PnL
+$7.87
Record
46%
2702-3200 (5902)
Invested
$1.55
Value
$1.4
PnL
-$0.15
Record
46%
1461-1683 (3144)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.