Bitcoin Up or Down on November 14?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Down (80%) · Down at 90¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 14

Up10¢Down90¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 80%

Total Value

$21.9K

Combined PnL

$471.5

Smart Money Entry

87.8¢ → 90¢

+2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up10%

Down90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$21.5K

Total Shares23,692

Combined PnL+$506.78

Up2 traders

Total Value$409.98

Total Shares4,100

Combined PnL-$35.27

Down — 80%Up — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+23 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrDown 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Down 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Downavg 89.2¢	$22.4K	$14.5K	+$725.59	69% 174-79 (253)
EA Eager47259	Downavg 83.9¢	$8.1K	$5.8K	-$537.4	50% 186-185 (371)
0X 0xDB5	Downavg 89.4¢	$732.74	$626.04	-$59.08	73% 119-45 (164)
SU suntoriCTR	Upavg 11.9¢	$487.89	$409.53	-$78.36	45% 2420-2899 (5319)
MO mo-money	Downavg 91¢	$1.5K	$180	+$158.47	49% 1227-1262 (2489)
AL almach	Downavg 91¢	$1.7K	$180	+$90.88	50% 1236-1242 (2478)
BO bosona	Downavg 91.1¢	$1.5K	$163.04	+$127.44	51% 4479-4365 (8844)
yen4u<$100	Downavg 89¢	$80.1	$83.7	+$3.6	44% 27-34 (61)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Downavg 82.6¢	$11.23	$8.5	-$2.73	46% 1316-1543 (2859)
HE HellsAngelxCTR	Upavg 7¢	$100.22	$0.45	+$43.08	— 4-10 (14)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Down

Invested

$22,352.44

Value

$14.5K

PnL

+$725.59

Record

69%

174-79 (253)

Eager47259

Down

Invested

$8,144.02

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$537.4

Record

50%

186-185 (371)

0xDB5

Down

Invested

$732.74

Value

$626.04

PnL

-$59.08

Record

73%

119-45 (164)

suntoriCTR

Invested

$487.89

Value

$409.53

PnL

-$78.36

Record

45%

2420-2899 (5319)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$1,474.82

Value

$180

PnL

+$158.47

Record

49%

1227-1262 (2489)

almach

Down

Invested

$1,659.28

Value

$180

PnL

+$90.88

Record

50%

1236-1242 (2478)

bosona

Down

Invested

$1,540.45

Value

$163.04

PnL

+$127.44

Record

51%

4479-4365 (8844)

yen4u<$100

Down

Invested

$80.1

Value

$83.7

PnL

+$3.6

Record

44%

27-34 (61)

rabadabadoo<$100

Down

Invested

$11.23

Value

$8.5

PnL

-$2.73

Record

46%

1316-1543 (2859)

HellsAngelxCTR

Invested

$100.22

Value

$0.45

PnL

+$43.08

Record

—

4-10 (14)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+23 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrDown 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Down 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.6%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.