Bitcoin Up or Down on November 13?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Down (85%) · Down at 100¢ · $28K held · ended Nov 13

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 85%

Total Value

$27.7K

Combined PnL

$2.6K

Smart Money Entry

91.4¢ → 100¢

+9% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down11 traders

Total Value$27.7K

Total Shares27,694

Combined PnL+$2.7K

Up2 traders

Total Value$5.63

Total Shares2,461

Combined PnL-$117.65

Down — 85%Up — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDown 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpDown 100% · 2

Aligned

sniperDown 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrDown 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Down 85% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Downavg 83.1¢	$14.5K	$9.7K	+$2.9K	68% 148-69 (217)
0X 0x2Cc8Cc54F50DbB45fE346612821CA93B6E93262B-1780571709186	Downavg 99.9¢	$6.2K	$6.2K	+$3.12	— 0-2 (2)
EA Eager47259	Downavg 96.1¢	$6.5K	$5.5K	-$739.59	50% 157-155 (312)
KI kingofcoinflips	Downavg 93.2¢	$4.7K	$5.0K	+$330.75	— 6-7 (13)
0X 0xDB5	Downavg 90¢	$836.11	$289.17	+$90.12	72% 102-39 (141)
AN Anon455	Downavg 58.6¢	$161.73	$211.19	+$49.45	50% 354-360 (714)
MO mo-money	Downavg 92¢	$209.07	$199.8	+$18.45	49% 1085-1134 (2219)
AL almach	Downavg 92¢	$184	$199.8	+$15.8	50% 1100-1113 (2213)
BO bosona	Downavg 92¢	$180.44	$195.93	+$15.49	51% 4344-4232 (8576)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Downavg 85¢	$26.76	$26.84	+$0.08	46% 1177-1375 (2552)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Upavg 5.8¢	$84.37	$5.11	-$79.26	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
Haradwaith<$100	Downavg 96.6¢	$1.72	$1.78	+$0.06	30% 108-251 (359)
HE HellsAngelxCTR<$100	Upavg 0.5¢	$20.13	$0.52	-$38.39	— 3-9 (12)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Down

Invested

$14,466.32

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

68%

148-69 (217)

0x2Cc8Cc54F50DbB45fE346612821CA93B6E93262B-1780571709186

Down

Invested

$6,226.36

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$3.12

Record

—

0-2 (2)

Eager47259

Down

Invested

$6,512.66

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$739.59

Record

50%

157-155 (312)

kingofcoinflips

Down

Invested

$4,733.51

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$330.75

Record

—

6-7 (13)

0xDB5

Down

Invested

$836.11

Value

$289.17

PnL

+$90.12

Record

72%

102-39 (141)

Anon455

Down

Invested

$161.73

Value

$211.19

PnL

+$49.45

Record

50%

354-360 (714)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$209.07

Value

$199.8

PnL

+$18.45

Record

49%

1085-1134 (2219)

almach

Down

Invested

$184

Value

$199.8

PnL

+$15.8

Record

50%

1100-1113 (2213)

bosona

Down

Invested

$180.44

Value

$195.93

PnL

+$15.49

Record

51%

4344-4232 (8576)

rabadabadoo<$100

Down

Invested

$26.76

Value

$26.84

PnL

+$0.08

Record

46%

1177-1375 (2552)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$84.37

Value

$5.11

PnL

-$79.26

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

Haradwaith<$100

Down

Invested

$1.72

Value

$1.78

PnL

+$0.06

Record

30%

108-251 (359)

HellsAngelxCTR<$100

Invested

$20.13

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$38.39

Record

—

3-9 (12)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDown 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpDown 100% · 2

Aligned

sniperDown 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrDown 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Down 85% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.