Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (65%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bitcoin Up or Down on November 12?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Up (75%) · Up at 36¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

Up36¢Down64¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$17.01

Smart Money Entry

53.2¢ → 35.5¢

-33% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Down 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up36%

Down65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$270.46

Total Shares531

Combined PnL-$17.38

Down1 trader

Total Value$1.53

Total Shares3

Combined PnL+$0.37

Up — 75%Down — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452ARB<$100	Downavg 46.1¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$178.86	63% 71-42 (113)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.1¢	$755.29	$819.78	+$64.49
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.8¢	$395.76	$510.14	+$114.38
38 0x3885...ca77CTR	Upavg 54.9¢	$265.1	$240.87	-$24.23	—
E9 0xe907...cff6CTR<$100	Upavg 38¢	$18.69	$24.59	+$5.9	—
DC 0xdc3f...4fa0CTR<$100	Upavg 41¢	$4.05	$5	+$0.95	—
AL almach<$100	Downavg 38¢	$1.16	$1.53	+$0.37	47% 654-750 (1404)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,151.06

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$178.86

Record

63%

71-42 (113)

Both legs:

Down$755.2946.1¢+$64.49

Up$395.7638.8¢+$114.38

0x3885...ca77CTR

Invested

$265.1

Value

$240.87

PnL

-$24.23

Record

—

0xe907...cff6CTR<$100

Invested

$18.69

Value

$24.59

PnL

+$5.9

Record

—

0xdc3f...4fa0CTR<$100

Invested

$4.05

Value

PnL

+$0.95

Record

—

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$1.16

Value

$1.53

PnL

+$0.37

Record

47%

654-750 (1404)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 36%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Down 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.1%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$162.31

Max Loss

-$100.00

262.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.