Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (72%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 11?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (60%) · Down at 28¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Down
5
Down 60%
$2.6K
$-2.6K
49.5¢ → 28.5¢
-42% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidDown at 28%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Up 72%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR | Downavg 49.6¢ | $4.7K | $2.0K | $-2.6K | 66% 56-29 (85) |
EA Eager47259 | Upavg 70.1¢ | $356.9 | $402.11 | +$45.21 | 40% 38-58 (96) |
AN Anon455 | Upavg 78.3¢ | $188.48 | $174.61 | -$13.88 | 43% 165-215 (380) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Downavg 40¢ | $21.56 | $19.3 | -$2.26 | 42% 378-516 (894) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $0.54 | $0.35 | -$0.19 | 50% 3604-3646 (7250) |
Invested
$4,677.92
Value
$2.0K
PnL
$-2.6K
Record
66%
56-29 (85)
Invested
$356.9
Value
$402.11
PnL
+$45.21
Record
40%
38-58 (96)
Invested
$188.48
Value
$174.61
PnL
-$13.88
Record
43%
165-215 (380)
Invested
$21.56
Value
$19.3
PnL
-$2.26
Record
42%
378-516 (894)
Invested
$0.54
Value
$0.35
PnL
-$0.19
Record
50%
3604-3646 (7250)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.