Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9AM ET
Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
7
Up 50%
1 arb excluded
$587.35
$-1.7K
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN Anon455CTR | Upavg 82.5¢ | $1.7K | — | $-1.7K | 55% 2909-2339 (5248) |
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100 | Downavg 59.5¢ | $340.98 | $290.27 | -$50.71 | 12% 18322-133004 (151326) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 27.8¢ | $168.23 | — | -$168.23 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 59.5¢ | $172.75 | $290.27 | +$117.52 | |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $160.47 | $162.09 | +$1.62 | 74% 102693-36455 (139148) |
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 48¢ | $82.4 | $116.92 | +$34.53 | 52% 7967-7500 (15467) |
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100 | Upavg 31¢ | $43.25 | — | -$43.25 | 54% 14512-12347 (26859) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 21.8¢ | $21.89 | — | -$21.89 | 64% 58688-33274 (91962) |
BE beeemw<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $15 | $18.07 | +$3.07 | 78% 310-88 (398) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 18¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20230-19367 (39597) |
Invested
$1,712.25
Value
—
PnL
$-1.7K
Record
55%
2909-2339 (5248)
Invested
$340.98
Value
$290.27
PnL
-$50.71
Record
12%
18322-133004 (151326)
Both legs:
BoneOhioInvested
$160.47
Value
$162.09
PnL
+$1.62
Record
74%
102693-36455 (139148)
Invested
$82.4
Value
$116.92
PnL
+$34.53
Record
52%
7967-7500 (15467)
Invested
$43.25
Value
—
PnL
-$43.25
Record
54%
14512-12347 (26859)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$21.89
Value
—
PnL
-$21.89
Record
64%
58688-33274 (91962)
Invested
$15
Value
$18.07
PnL
+$3.07
Record
78%
310-88 (398)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20230-19367 (39597)
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