Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8AM ET

Resolved Down. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$41.77

Down

3 of 8 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Up0%

Down100%

Down3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,158

Combined PnL+$546.03

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares992

Combined PnL-$504.27

Down — 38%Up — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Downavg 46.9¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$82.12	12% 18322-133004 (151326)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.9¢	$614.13	$1.3K	+$695.37
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.6¢	$613.25	—	-$613.25
LO Loser12	Downavg 54.1¢	$432.74	$799.98	+$367.24	— 7-4 (11)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 39.3¢	$254.14	$243.53	-$10.61	64% 58688-33274 (91962)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.9¢	$123.84	$243.53	+$119.69
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.3¢	$130.3	—	-$130.3
FI fiankee	Downavg 47¢	$141	$300	+$159	55% 1007-808 (1815)
AN Anon455CTR	Upavg 74.2¢	$363.76	—	-$363.76	55% 2909-2339 (5248)
DU DubaiitalyCTR	Upavg 49.9¢	$100	—	-$100	49% 181-188 (369)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 51.4¢	$37.77	$57.57	+$19.79	52% 7967-7500 (15467)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 34¢	$11.08	—	-$11.08	55% 50678-41281 (91959)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 18.1¢	$20.57	—	+$15.57	51% 20230-19367 (39597)
AL almachCTR<$100	Upavg 15¢	$45	—	-$45	55% 48629-40196 (88825)