Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6PM ET
Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
7
Down 57%
4 arb excluded
$2.4K
$147.79
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Downavg 64¢ | $731.82 | $718.07 | -$13.75 | 57% 6763-5002 (11765) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64¢ | $459.34 | $718.07 | +$258.74 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.7¢ | $272.49 | — | -$272.49 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 55.1¢ | $684.26 | $672.62 | -$11.64 | 67% 99862-48253 (148115) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55.1¢ | $370.69 | $672.62 | +$301.93 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52.2¢ | $313.57 | — | -$313.57 | |
AN Anon455 | Downavg 65.1¢ | $288.8 | $443.77 | +$154.97 | 55% 2972-2408 (5380) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 48.5¢ | $235.88 | $331.33 | +$95.45 | 64% 58732-33316 (92048) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.5¢ | $160.86 | $331.33 | +$170.45 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $75 | — | -$75 | |
HS Hsilverbasher | Downavg 57.9¢ | $76.9 | $132.92 | +$56.03 | 12% 18328-133011 (151339) |
AL almachARB<$100 | Downavg 73.7¢ | $79.33 | $58.34 | -$20.99 | 55% 48696-40263 (88959) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 73.7¢ | $43.02 | $58.34 | +$15.32 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 62.2¢ | $36.31 | — | -$36.31 | |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Upavg 48.9¢ | $61.24 | — | -$61.24 | 55% 50763-41356 (92119) |
BE beeemw<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $15 | $20.83 | +$5.83 | 78% 314-89 (403) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 17.7¢ | $5.3 | — | -$5.3 | 52% 8141-7644 (15785) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $5.2 | $10.2 | +$5 | 58% 51244-37362 (88606) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $7.5 | — | -$7.5 | 51% 20284-19402 (39686) |
Invested
$731.82
Value
$718.07
PnL
-$13.75
Record
57%
6763-5002 (11765)
Both legs:
Invested
$684.26
Value
$672.62
PnL
-$11.64
Record
67%
99862-48253 (148115)
Both legs:
Invested
$288.8
Value
$443.77
PnL
+$154.97
Record
55%
2972-2408 (5380)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$235.88
Value
$331.33
PnL
+$95.45
Record
64%
58732-33316 (92048)
Both legs:
Invested
$76.9
Value
$132.92
PnL
+$56.03
Record
12%
18328-133011 (151339)
Invested
$79.33
Value
$58.34
PnL
-$20.99
Record
55%
48696-40263 (88959)
Both legs:
Invested
$61.24
Value
—
PnL
-$61.24
Record
55%
50763-41356 (92119)
Invested
$15
Value
$20.83
PnL
+$5.83
Record
78%
314-89 (403)
Invested
$5.3
Value
—
PnL
-$5.3
Record
52%
8141-7644 (15785)
Invested
$5.2
Value
$10.2
PnL
+$5
Record
58%
51244-37362 (88606)
Invested
$7.5
Value
—
PnL
-$7.5
Record
51%
20284-19402 (39686)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
peepeepoopoo24
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Anon455
Down — $443.77
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Hsilverbasher
Down — $132.92
almach
ARBArbitrage — excluded
mo-money
CTRUp — $0
beeemw
Down — $20.83
ply-pm2
CTRUp — $0
PBot-6
Down — $10.2