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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 5PM ET

Resolved Up. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

7

Down 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$460.81

Combined PnL

$-3.4K

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,172

Combined PnL$-3.5K

Up3 traders

Total Value$166

Total Shares166

Combined PnL+$114.27

Down — 57%Up — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR	Downavg 63.2¢	$1.6K	—	$-1.6K	57% 6763-5000 (11763)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Downavg 52.8¢	$642.91	—	-$642.91	67% 99860-48251 (148111)
AN Anon455CTR	Downavg 75.2¢	$1.3K	—	$-1.3K	55% 2951-2377 (5328)
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Downavg 70.8¢	$193.49	$244.81	+$51.32	12% 18327-133010 (151337)
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.1¢	$56.66	$244.81	+$188.15
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.8¢	$136.82	—	-$136.82
TM tmsd-test	Upavg 41¢	$57.81	$141	+$83.19	54% 14530-12375 (26905)
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100	Downavg 45.5¢	$78.29	$50	-$28.29	52% 8114-7618 (15732)
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.2¢	$14.6	$50	+$35.4
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.5¢	$63.69	—	-$63.69
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 45¢	$8.55	—	-$8.55	58% 51216-37341 (88557)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 29¢	$34.8	$15	+$23.98	51% 20282-19401 (39683)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 29¢	$2.9	$10	+$7.1	58% 38241-27378 (65619)

peepeepoopoo24CTR

Invested

$1,575.08

Value

—

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

57%

6763-5000 (11763)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$642.91

Value

—

PnL

-$642.91

Record

67%

99860-48251 (148111)

Invested

$1,253.38

Value

—

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

55%

2951-2377 (5328)

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Invested

$193.49

Value

$244.81

PnL

+$51.32

Record

12%

18327-133010 (151337)

Both legs:

Up$56.6623.1¢+$188.15

Down$136.8270.8¢-$136.82

Invested

$57.81

Value

$141

PnL

+$83.19

Record

54%

14530-12375 (26905)

ply-pm2ARB<$100

Invested

$78.29

Value

$50

PnL

-$28.29

Record

52%

8114-7618 (15732)

Both legs:

Up$14.629.2¢+$35.4

Down$63.6945.5¢-$63.69

Invested

$8.55

Value

—

PnL

-$8.55

Record

58%

51216-37341 (88557)

Invested

$34.8

Value

$15

PnL

+$23.98

Record

51%

20282-19401 (39683)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$2.9

Value

$10

PnL

+$7.1

Record

58%

38241-27378 (65619)

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x3d8d92b1...173416

Slug

bitcoin-up-or-down-october-31-2026-5pm-et

Traders in this Market

peepeepoopoo24

Down — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $0

Anon455

Down — $0

Hsilverbasher

Arbitrage — excluded

tmsd-test

Up — $141

ply-pm2

Arbitrage — excluded

PBot-6

Down — $0

devonpoll

Up — $15

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $10

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