Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4PM ET
Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
12
Down 82%
2 arb excluded
$3.8K
$-1.1K
Smart Money Signal
9 of 12 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Downavg 55.2¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$49.87 | 57% 6759-4998 (11757) |
AN Anon455 | Downavg 67.6¢ | $1.7K | $1.4K | -$317.51 | 55% 2937-2368 (5305) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 57¢ | $704.13 | — | -$704.13 | 67% 99858-48247 (148105) |
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100 | Upavg 61.5¢ | $364.02 | $110.49 | -$253.53 | 12% 18326-133008 (151334) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 61.5¢ | $329.51 | — | -$329.51 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 31.2¢ | $34.51 | $110.49 | +$75.98 | |
TM tmsd-testCTR | Upavg 24.9¢ | $437.5 | — | -$436.96 | 54% 14526-12369 (26895) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 69.7¢ | $185.48 | $170 | -$15.48 | 64% 58732-33314 (92046) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 69.7¢ | $118.53 | $170 | +$51.47 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 38.2¢ | $66.95 | — | -$66.95 | |
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 52¢ | $88.32 | $123.01 | +$34.7 | 52% 8084-7595 (15679) |
PB PBot-6 | Downavg 45¢ | $59.49 | $132.2 | +$72.71 | 58% 51198-37322 (88520) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $45.76 | $97.36 | +$51.6 | 58% 38225-27367 (65592) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 17¢ | $29.19 | $171.71 | +$142.52 | 55% 50710-41324 (92034) |
BO bosona | Downavg 56¢ | $87.86 | $156.9 | +$69.04 | 55% 49937-40156 (90093) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $12.38 | $12.5 | +$0.13 | 74% 102858-36493 (139351) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 19¢ | $7.34 | $38.65 | +$31.3 | 55% 48660-40233 (88893) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20272-19399 (39671) |
Invested
$1,426.34
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$49.87
Record
57%
6759-4998 (11757)
Invested
$1,731.02
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$317.51
Record
55%
2937-2368 (5305)
Invested
$704.13
Value
—
PnL
-$704.13
Record
67%
99858-48247 (148105)
Invested
$364.02
Value
$110.49
PnL
-$253.53
Record
12%
18326-133008 (151334)
Both legs:
Invested
$437.5
Value
—
PnL
-$436.96
Record
54%
14526-12369 (26895)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$185.48
Value
$170
PnL
-$15.48
Record
64%
58732-33314 (92046)
Both legs:
Invested
$88.32
Value
$123.01
PnL
+$34.7
Record
52%
8084-7595 (15679)
Invested
$59.49
Value
$132.2
PnL
+$72.71
Record
58%
51198-37322 (88520)
Invested
$45.76
Value
$97.36
PnL
+$51.6
Record
58%
38225-27367 (65592)
Invested
$29.19
Value
$171.71
PnL
+$142.52
Record
55%
50710-41324 (92034)
Invested
$87.86
Value
$156.9
PnL
+$69.04
Record
55%
49937-40156 (90093)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$12.38
Value
$12.5
PnL
+$0.13
Record
74%
102858-36493 (139351)
Invested
$7.34
Value
$38.65
PnL
+$31.3
Record
55%
48660-40233 (88893)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20272-19399 (39671)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
peepeepoopoo24
Down — $1.4K
Anon455
Down — $1.4K
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
Hsilverbasher
ARBArbitrage — excluded
tmsd-test
CTRUp — $0
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
Down — $123.01
PBot-6
Down — $132.2
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $97.36
mo-money
Down — $171.71