Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3AM ET

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Down (57%) · Down at 100¢ · $555 held · ended Oct 31

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 57%

Total Value

$554.71

Combined PnL

$22.06

Smart Money Entry

55.2¢ → 100¢

+81% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$545.15

Total Shares550

Combined PnL+$22.73

Up3 traders

Total Value$9.56

Total Shares30

Combined PnL-$0.67

Down — 57%Up — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 58.5¢	$315.18	$277.72	-$37.46	64% 58572-33180 (91752)
HS Hsilverbasher	Downavg 42.1¢	$119.13	$161.59	+$42.46	12% 18315-133003 (151318)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 53.1¢	$37.1	$54.78	+$17.67	52% 7885-7424 (15309)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 77.5¢	$51.01	$51.06	+$0.05	55% 49831-40052 (89883)
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$6.14	$6.26	+$0.13	59% 22452-15833 (38285)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 18¢	$2.85	$2.3	-$0.55	51% 20197-19346 (39543)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 62¢	$1.24	$1	-$0.24	55% 50652-41257 (91909)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$315.18

Value

$277.72

PnL

-$37.46

Record

64%

58572-33180 (91752)

Hsilverbasher

Down

Invested

$119.13

Value

$161.59

PnL

+$42.46

Record

12%

18315-133003 (151318)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$37.1

Value

$54.78

PnL

+$17.67

Record

52%

7885-7424 (15309)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$51.01

Value

$51.06

PnL

+$0.05

Record

55%

49831-40052 (89883)

rabadabadooCTR<$100

Invested

$6.14

Value

$6.26

PnL

+$0.13

Record

59%

22452-15833 (38285)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.3

PnL

-$0.55

Record

51%

20197-19346 (39543)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$1.24

Value

PnL

-$0.24

Record

55%

50652-41257 (91909)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.