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UpDown
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100UpUpDown
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2AM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
4
Up 50%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$1.5K
Combined PnL
$120.97
Smart Money Signal
Up
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up2 traders
Total Value$1.3K
Total Shares1,319
Combined PnL+$406.94
Down2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares451
Combined PnL-$285.97
Up — 50%Down — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 65.9¢ | $845.51 | $1.3K | +$438.39 | 67% 99794-48193 (147987) |
HS HsilverbasherCTR | Downavg 34¢ | $281.47 | — | -$281.47 | 12% 18314-133003 (151317) |
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 44.5¢ | $67.04 | $150 | +$82.96 | 64% 58572-33178 (91750) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.5¢ | $66.75 | $150 | +$83.25 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 0.7¢ | $0.29 | — | -$0.29 | |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $66.45 | $35 | -$31.45 | 51% 7854-7405 (15259) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $4.5 | — | -$4.5 | 58% 38071-27285 (65356) |
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609Invested
$845.51
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$438.39
Record
67%
99794-48193 (147987)
HS
HsilverbasherCTRInvested
$281.47
Value
—
PnL
-$281.47
Record
12%
18314-133003 (151317)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$67.04
Value
$150
PnL
+$82.96
Record
64%
58572-33178 (91750)
Both legs:
Up$66.7544.5¢+$83.25
Down$0.290.7¢-$0.29
PL
ply-pm2<$100Invested
$66.45
Value
$35
PnL
-$31.45
Record
51%
7854-7405 (15259)
0X
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100Invested
$4.5
Value
—
PnL
-$4.5
Record
58%
38071-27285 (65356)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xaff0e73c...64f67a
Slug
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-31-2026-2am-et