Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1PM ET

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Up (60%) · Up at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 60%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$62.21

Smart Money Entry

79.9¢ → 100¢

+25% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares2,696

Combined PnL+$50.92

Down2 traders

Total Value$67.05

Total Shares134

Combined PnL+$11.29

Up — 60%Down — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$14.25	74% 102835-36488 (139323)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 56.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$27.98	67% 99829-48214 (148043)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Upavg 61.4¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$275.81	55% 2916-2352 (5268)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.4¢	$995.35	$810.3	-$185.05
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.8¢	$398.33	$307.57	-$90.76
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Upavg 54.2¢	$846.97	$858.99	+$12.01	57% 6759-4996 (11755)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.2¢	$465.98	$429.75	-$36.22
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.4¢	$380.99	$429.23	+$48.24
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Downavg 36.3¢	$183.85	$218.96	+$35.11	12% 18325-133007 (151332)
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.3¢	$115.45	$158.89	+$43.44
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.9¢	$68.4	$60.06	-$8.33
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 44.1¢	$38	$43.05	+$5.05	52% 8055-7577 (15632)
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100	Downavg 37¢	$17.76	$24	+$6.24	54% 14522-12366 (26888)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 42¢	$6.3	$14.99	+$8.69	51% 20264-19394 (39658)

BoneOhio

Invested

$1,485

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$14.25

Record

74%

102835-36488 (139323)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$1,152.78

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$27.98

Record

67%

99829-48214 (148043)

Anon455ARB<$100

Invested

$1,393.68

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$275.81

Record

55%

2916-2352 (5268)

Both legs:

Up$995.3561.4¢-$185.05

Down$398.3364.8¢-$90.76

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Invested

$846.97

Value

$858.99

PnL

+$12.01

Record

57%

6759-4996 (11755)

Both legs:

Up$465.9854.2¢-$36.22

Down$380.9944.4¢+$48.24

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Down

Invested

$183.85

Value

$218.96

PnL

+$35.11

Record

12%

18325-133007 (151332)

Both legs:

Down$115.4536.3¢+$43.44

Up$68.456.9¢-$8.33

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$38

Value

$43.05

PnL

+$5.05

Record

52%

8055-7577 (15632)

tmsd-testCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$17.76

Value

$24

PnL

+$6.24

Record

54%

14522-12366 (26888)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

$6.3

Value

$14.99

PnL

+$8.69

Record

51%

20264-19394 (39658)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.