Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (100%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12PM ET

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Down (50%) · Down at 0.1¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$107.26

Smart Money Entry

57.4¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,205

Combined PnL-$120.55

Up5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,432

Combined PnL+$13.29

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455CTR	Downavg 65.2¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$150.21	55% 2909-2340 (5249)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 57.1¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$7.14	58% 6757-4993 (11750)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.1¢	$684.81	$666.07	-$18.74
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.4¢	$346.62	$372.51	+$25.88
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Downavg 50.2¢	$971.97	$952.09	-$19.88	67% 99829-48214 (148043)
SH Sharky6999	Upavg 99¢	$564.98	$545.01	-$19.97	98% 6876-166 (7042)
HS HsilverbasherCTR	Downavg 50.6¢	$276.32	$345.87	+$69.55	12% 18323-133006 (151329)
BI bibana100	Upavg 49.3¢	$300	$295.22	-$4.78	— 5-8 (13)
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Upavg 62¢	$312.98	$272.26	-$40.73	59% 22574-15937 (38511)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.4¢	$145.99	$190.05	+$44.06
└ Up leg	Upavg 62¢	$166.99	$82.2	-$84.78
TM tmsd-test	Upavg 55.7¢	$153.17	$192.98	+$39.81	54% 14517-12356 (26873)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 48¢	$18.2	$18.96	+$0.76	58% 51165-37295 (88460)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 40.4¢	$39.25	$18.48	-$20.77	51% 8020-7554 (15574)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 55¢	$5.5	$5	-$0.5	58% 38177-27343 (65520)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 41¢	$6.15	$4.88	-$1.28	51% 20252-19386 (39638)

Anon455CTR

Down

Invested

$1,437.72

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$150.21

Record

55%

2909-2340 (5249)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,031.44

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$7.14

Record

58%

6757-4993 (11750)

Both legs:

Down$684.8157.1¢-$18.74

Up$346.6241.4¢+$25.88

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Down

Invested

$971.97

Value

$952.09

PnL

-$19.88

Record

67%

99829-48214 (148043)

Sharky6999

Invested

$564.98

Value

$545.01

PnL

-$19.97

Record

98%

6876-166 (7042)

HsilverbasherCTR

Down

Invested

$276.32

Value

$345.87

PnL

+$69.55

Record

12%

18323-133006 (151329)

bibana100

Invested

$300

Value

$295.22

PnL

-$4.78

Record

—

5-8 (13)

rabadabadooARB<$100

Invested

$312.98

Value

$272.26

PnL

-$40.73

Record

59%

22574-15937 (38511)

Both legs:

Down$145.9953.4¢+$44.06

Up$166.9962¢-$84.78

tmsd-test

Invested

$153.17

Value

$192.98

PnL

+$39.81

Record

54%

14517-12356 (26873)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$18.2

Value

$18.96

PnL

+$0.76

Record

58%

51165-37295 (88460)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$39.25

Value

$18.48

PnL

-$20.77

Record

51%

8020-7554 (15574)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$5.5

Value

PnL

-$0.5

Record

58%

38177-27343 (65520)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

$6.15

Value

$4.88

PnL

-$1.28

Record

51%

20252-19386 (39638)

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.