Back to Markets
UpDownUpDownDown
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12AM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
4
Up 50%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$1.2K
Combined PnL
$408.34
Smart Money Signal
Up
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up2 traders
Total Value$1.1K
Total Shares1,086
Combined PnL+$471.73
Down2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares93
Combined PnL-$63.39
Up — 50%Down — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HS Hsilverbasher | Upavg 47.8¢ | $483.61 | $996.52 | +$512.91 | 12% 18314-133002 (151316) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 38¢ | $89.96 | $80.12 | -$9.85 | 51% 7828-7386 (15214) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38¢ | $64.14 | — | -$64.14 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.2¢ | $25.82 | $80.12 | +$54.3 | |
AL almach | Upavg 86¢ | $131.02 | $89.84 | -$41.18 | 55% 48555-40104 (88659) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $40.29 | — | -$40.29 | 55% 50600-41206 (91806) |
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $23.1 | — | -$23.1 | 54% 14497-12331 (26828) |
HS
HsilverbasherInvested
$483.61
Value
$996.52
PnL
+$512.91
Record
12%
18314-133002 (151316)
PL
ply-pm2ARB<$100Invested
$89.96
Value
$80.12
PnL
-$9.85
Record
51%
7828-7386 (15214)
Both legs:
Down$64.1438¢-$64.14
Up$25.8232.2¢+$54.3
AL
almachInvested
$131.02
Value
$89.84
PnL
-$41.18
Record
55%
48555-40104 (88659)
MO
mo-moneyCTR<$100Invested
$40.29
Value
—
PnL
-$40.29
Record
55%
50600-41206 (91806)
TM
tmsd-testCTR<$100Invested
$23.1
Value
—
PnL
-$23.1
Record
54%
14497-12331 (26828)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
Market Info
Condition ID
0x8c4494cc...66851a
Slug
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-31-2026-12am-et