Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11AM ET

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Up (63%) · Up at 61¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31

Up61¢Down39¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$21.04

Smart Money Entry

82.1¢ → 60.5¢

-26% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up61%

Down39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,084

Combined PnL+$7.73

Down3 traders

Total Value$24.88

Total Shares99

Combined PnL-$28.77

Up — 63%Down — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUp 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUp 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrDown 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Down 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 58.7¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$151.09	67% 99829-48214 (148043)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.7¢	$890.73	$917.57	+$26.79
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.8¢	$703.93	$526.11	-$177.87
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 90.5¢	$509.73	$452.71	-$57.02	58% 6757-4993 (11750)
AN Anon455	Upavg 78.6¢	$366.91	$420.61	+$53.7	55% 2909-2340 (5249)
RA rabadabadoo	Upavg 66.8¢	$379.59	$137.53	+$16.34	59% 22574-15937 (38511)
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Upavg 58.7¢	$98.71	$99.95	+$1.24	12% 18323-133006 (151329)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.7¢	$53.15	$79.17	+$26.02
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.4¢	$45.56	$20.78	-$24.78
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 37.7¢	$40.33	$16.34	-$24	51% 8020-7554 (15574)
BE beeemw<$100	Upavg 64¢	$15	$14.88	-$0.12	78% 311-88 (399)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 95¢	$28.8	$14.63	-$5.17	51% 20252-19386 (39638)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 45¢	$11.49	$6.64	-$4.85	58% 51165-37295 (88460)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 38¢	$1.84	$1.91	+$0.07	55% 50707-41320 (92027)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$1,594.78

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$151.09

Record

67%

99829-48214 (148043)

Both legs:

Up$890.7358.7¢+$26.79

Down$703.9352.8¢-$177.87

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$509.73

Value

$452.71

PnL

-$57.02

Record

58%

6757-4993 (11750)

Anon455

Invested

$366.91

Value

$420.61

PnL

+$53.7

Record

55%

2909-2340 (5249)

rabadabadoo

Invested

$379.59

Value

$137.53

PnL

+$16.34

Record

59%

22574-15937 (38511)

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Invested

$98.71

Value

$99.95

PnL

+$1.24

Record

12%

18323-133006 (151329)

Both legs:

Up$53.1558.7¢+$26.02

Down$45.5627.4¢-$24.78

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$40.33

Value

$16.34

PnL

-$24

Record

51%

8020-7554 (15574)

beeemw<$100

Invested

$15

Value

$14.88

PnL

-$0.12

Record

78%

311-88 (399)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

$28.8

Value

$14.63

PnL

-$5.17

Record

51%

20252-19386 (39638)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$11.49

Value

$6.64

PnL

-$4.85

Record

58%

51165-37295 (88460)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.84

Value

$1.91

PnL

+$0.07

Record

55%

50707-41320 (92027)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 61%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUp 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUp 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrDown 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Down 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.