Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9AM ET
Resolved Down. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
12
Down 82%
2 arb excluded
$6.8K
$717.53
Smart Money Signal
10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 64.6¢ | $2.7K | $3.4K | +$672.17 | 68% 99525-47913 (147438) |
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $903.13 | $916.15 | +$13.02 | 12% 18307-132994 (151301) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 75¢ | $687.56 | $916.15 | +$228.58 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 25.9¢ | $215.56 | — | -$215.56 | |
AN Anon455 | Downavg 64.2¢ | $649.8 | $1.0K | +$358.06 | 56% 2854-2282 (5136) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 94.1¢ | $463.65 | $477.05 | +$13.4 | 64% 58292-32971 (91263) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Downavg 57¢ | $261 | $450 | +$189 | 57% 6707-4966 (11673) |
AL almach | Downavg 50¢ | $153 | $300 | +$147 | 55% 48449-40006 (88455) |
TM tmsd-testCTR | Upavg 28¢ | $687.29 | — | -$687.29 | 54% 14469-12303 (26772) |
DE devonpollARB<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $108 | $180 | +$28.13 | 51% 20077-19224 (39301) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60¢ | $108 | $180 | +$72 | |
| └ Up leg | Up | — | — | -$43.88 | |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 50.3¢ | $21.69 | $36.38 | +$14.69 | 51% 7596-7161 (14757) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 61¢ | $6.84 | $11.21 | +$4.37 | 55% 49717-39927 (89644) |
BE beeemw<$100 | Downavg 64¢ | $10 | $15.63 | +$5.63 | 78% 305-88 (393) |
AO aosdijfCTR<$100 | Upavg 0.1¢ | $3 | — | -$3 | 9% 46-450 (496) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $6.5 | $10 | +$3.5 | 58% 37847-27088 (64935) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 64¢ | — | — | +$0 | 55% 50491-41087 (91578) |
Invested
$2,702.56
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$672.17
Record
68%
99525-47913 (147438)
Invested
$903.13
Value
$916.15
PnL
+$13.02
Record
12%
18307-132994 (151301)
Both legs:
Invested
$649.8
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$358.06
Record
56%
2854-2282 (5136)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$463.65
Value
$477.05
PnL
+$13.4
Record
64%
58292-32971 (91263)
Invested
$261
Value
$450
PnL
+$189
Record
57%
6707-4966 (11673)
Invested
$153
Value
$300
PnL
+$147
Record
55%
48449-40006 (88455)
Invested
$687.29
Value
—
PnL
-$687.29
Record
54%
14469-12303 (26772)
Invested
$108
Value
$180
PnL
+$28.13
Record
51%
20077-19224 (39301)
Both legs:
Invested
$21.69
Value
$36.38
PnL
+$14.69
Record
51%
7596-7161 (14757)
Invested
$6.84
Value
$11.21
PnL
+$4.37
Record
55%
49717-39927 (89644)
Invested
$10
Value
$15.63
PnL
+$5.63
Record
78%
305-88 (393)
Invested
$3
Value
—
PnL
-$3
Record
9%
46-450 (496)
Invested
$6.5
Value
$10
PnL
+$3.5
Record
58%
37847-27088 (64935)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
50491-41087 (91578)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $3.4K
Hsilverbasher
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Anon455
Down — $1.0K
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $477.05
peepeepoopoo24
Down — $450
almach
Down — $300
tmsd-test
CTRUp — $0
devonpoll
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
Down — $36.38
bosona
Down — $11.21