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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8AM ET

Resolved Up. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

11

Up 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares7,765

Combined PnL+$286.57

Down4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,452

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Up — 64%Down — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 65.3¢	$6.2K	$6.1K	-$74.53	68% 99525-47913 (147438)
BI bibana100CTR	Downavg 38.8¢	$4.1K	—	$-1.6K	— 1-1 (2)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 60.8¢	$841.83	$990.23	+$148.4	57% 6707-4966 (11673)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 54.4¢	$363.2	$530	+$166.8	64% 58292-32971 (91263)
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Upavg 68.9¢	$397	$197	-$4.79	12% 18307-132994 (151301)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.9¢	$135.77	$197	+$61.21
└ Down leg	Downavg 33¢	$66	—	-$66
AN Anon455<$100	Upavg 71¢	$63.88	$90	+$26.12	56% 2854-2282 (5136)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 52¢	$22.5	$22.5	+$10.8	56% 58073-44827 (102900)
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100	Downavg 16¢	$28.51	—	-$28.51	54% 14469-12303 (26772)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Downavg 48¢	$17.52	—	-$17.52	46% 7940-9367 (17307)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 71¢	$10.65	$15	+$4.35	51% 20077-19224 (39301)
MO mo-money<$100	Upavg 68¢	$9.86	$14.5	+$4.64	55% 50491-41087 (91578)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 37¢	$40.88	—	-$40.88	51% 7596-7161 (14757)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$6,177.67

Value

$6.1K

PnL

-$74.53

Record

68%

99525-47913 (147438)

Invested

$4,126.55

Value

—

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

—

1-1 (2)

Invested

$841.83

Value

$990.23

PnL

+$148.4

Record

57%

6707-4966 (11673)

Invested

$363.2

Value

$530

PnL

+$166.8

Record

64%

58292-32971 (91263)

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Invested

$397

Value

$197

PnL

-$4.79

Record

12%

18307-132994 (151301)

Both legs:

Up$135.7768.9¢+$61.21

Down$6633¢-$66

Invested

$63.88

Value

$90

PnL

+$26.12

Record

56%

2854-2282 (5136)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$22.5

Value

$22.5

PnL

+$10.8

Record

56%

58073-44827 (102900)

tmsd-testCTR<$100

Invested

$28.51

Value

—

PnL

-$28.51

Record

54%

14469-12303 (26772)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$17.52

Value

—

PnL

-$17.52

Record

46%

7940-9367 (17307)

Invested

$10.65

Value

$15

PnL

+$4.35

Record

51%

20077-19224 (39301)

Invested

$9.86

Value

$14.5

PnL

+$4.64

Record

55%

50491-41087 (91578)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$40.88

Value

—

PnL

-$40.88

Record

51%

7596-7161 (14757)

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x4fd45b49...0eaff4

Slug

bitcoin-up-or-down-october-30-2026-8am-et

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $6.1K

bibana100

Down — $0

peepeepoopoo24

Up — $990.23

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $530

Hsilverbasher

Arbitrage — excluded

Anon455

Up — $90

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $22.5

tmsd-test

Down — $0

38791873984189

Down — $0

devonpoll

Up — $15

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