Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6PM ET
Resolved Up. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Up 79%
1 arb excluded
$7.4K
-$261
Smart Money Signal
12 of 16 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 71.1¢ | $2.9K | $4.0K | +$1.2K | 67% 99627-48015 (147642) |
BI bibana100CTR | Downavg 21.5¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | — 5-6 (11) |
IM ImgonnadoitCTR | Downavg 23.6¢ | $899.95 | — | -$899.95 | 39% 191-302 (493) |
HS Hsilverbasher | Upavg 83.5¢ | $807.47 | $933.6 | +$126.14 | 12% 18311-132999 (151310) |
AN Anon455 | Upavg 77.5¢ | $565.69 | $730.02 | +$164.33 | 55% 2862-2296 (5158) |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Upavg 78.5¢ | $539.96 | $604 | +$64.03 | 57% 6742-4985 (11727) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 78.5¢ | $474.18 | $604 | +$129.82 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 8.4¢ | $65.78 | — | -$65.78 | |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 75.2¢ | $601.02 | $728.06 | +$127.04 | 64% 58432-33076 (91508) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 74.7¢ | $98.04 | $114 | +$15.96 | 55% 50593-41202 (91795) |
AL almach | Upavg 76¢ | $99.56 | $114 | +$14.44 | 55% 48497-40065 (88562) |
BO bosona | Upavg 74¢ | $97.28 | $114 | +$16.72 | 55% 49771-39994 (89765) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 95¢ | $35.26 | $20 | -$15.26 | 51% 7743-7307 (15050) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $43.65 | — | -$43.65 | 58% 51036-37181 (88217) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $18.02 | $18.2 | +$0.18 | 74% 102628-36442 (139070) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 50.3¢ | $15.3 | $15.39 | +$11.19 | 51% 20141-19302 (39443) |
BE beeemw<$100 | Upavg 81¢ | $10 | $12.35 | +$2.35 | 78% 306-88 (394) |
DU Dubaiitaly | Upavg 54.7¢ | $188 | $0 | +$155.58 | 49% 179-187 (366) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 45.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 58% 37996-27224 (65220) |
Invested
$2,871.32
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
67%
99627-48015 (147642)
Invested
$1,101.25
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
—
5-6 (11)
Invested
$899.95
Value
—
PnL
-$899.95
Record
39%
191-302 (493)
Invested
$807.47
Value
$933.6
PnL
+$126.14
Record
12%
18311-132999 (151310)
Invested
$565.69
Value
$730.02
PnL
+$164.33
Record
55%
2862-2296 (5158)
Invested
$539.96
Value
$604
PnL
+$64.03
Record
57%
6742-4985 (11727)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$601.02
Value
$728.06
PnL
+$127.04
Record
64%
58432-33076 (91508)
Invested
$98.04
Value
$114
PnL
+$15.96
Record
55%
50593-41202 (91795)
Invested
$99.56
Value
$114
PnL
+$14.44
Record
55%
48497-40065 (88562)
Invested
$97.28
Value
$114
PnL
+$16.72
Record
55%
49771-39994 (89765)
Invested
$35.26
Value
$20
PnL
-$15.26
Record
51%
7743-7307 (15050)
Invested
$43.65
Value
—
PnL
-$43.65
Record
58%
51036-37181 (88217)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$18.02
Value
$18.2
PnL
+$0.18
Record
74%
102628-36442 (139070)
Invested
$15.3
Value
$15.39
PnL
+$11.19
Record
51%
20141-19302 (39443)
Invested
$10
Value
$12.35
PnL
+$2.35
Record
78%
306-88 (394)
Invested
$188
Value
$0
PnL
+$155.58
Record
49%
179-187 (366)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
37996-27224 (65220)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $4.0K
bibana100
CTRDown — $0
Imgonnadoit
CTRDown — $0
Hsilverbasher
Up — $933.6
Anon455
Up — $730.02
peepeepoopoo24
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $728.06
mo-money
Up — $114
almach
Up — $114
bosona
Up — $114