Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5PM ET

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Down (83%) · Down at 100¢ · $619 held · ended Oct 30

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$618.68

Combined PnL

$35.89

Smart Money Entry

69¢ → 100¢

+45% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$216.24

Total Shares246

Combined PnL+$21.66

Up1 trader

Total Value$15.25

Total Shares31

Combined PnL+$14.22

Down — 83%Up — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$493.2	$387.17	-$106.02	57% 6738-4981 (11719)
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.7¢	$242.41	$209.22	-$33.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250.78	$177.96	-$72.83
AN Anon455<$100	Downavg 76.4¢	$91.19	$94.83	+$3.65	56% 2860-2290 (5150)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 56.7¢	$62.74	$81.57	+$18.84	51% 7723-7285 (15008)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 24.7¢	$11.23	$15.25	+$14.22	51% 20126-19292 (39418)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 76.9¢	$15.59	$15.13	-$0.45	12% 18311-132999 (151310)
BE beeemw<$100	Downavg 64¢	$10	$12.42	+$2.42	78% 306-88 (394)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 76.4¢	$15.07	$12.29	-$2.79	58% 37968-27204 (65172)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Invested

$493.2

Value

$387.17

PnL

-$106.02

Record

57%

6738-4981 (11719)

Both legs:

Down$242.4174.7¢-$33.2

Up$250.7850¢-$72.83

Anon455<$100

Down

Invested

$91.19

Value

$94.83

PnL

+$3.65

Record

56%

2860-2290 (5150)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$62.74

Value

$81.57

PnL

+$18.84

Record

51%

7723-7285 (15008)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$11.23

Value

$15.25

PnL

+$14.22

Record

51%

20126-19292 (39418)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Down

Invested

$15.59

Value

$15.13

PnL

-$0.45

Record

12%

18311-132999 (151310)

beeemw<$100

Down

Invested

$10

Value

$12.42

PnL

+$2.42

Record

78%

306-88 (394)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$15.07

Value

$12.29

PnL

-$2.79

Record

58%

37968-27204 (65172)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.