Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4PM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
8
Up 43%
4 arb excluded
$2.7K
$-1.0K
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TM tmsd-testCTR | Upavg 45.7¢ | $948.73 | — | -$938.96 | 54% 14480-12314 (26794) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 59.7¢ | $723.65 | $645.76 | -$77.89 | 67% 99627-48014 (147641) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 68.2¢ | $337.82 | — | -$337.86 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 59.7¢ | $385.78 | $645.76 | +$259.97 | |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Upavg 55.2¢ | $452.52 | $423.41 | -$29.12 | 57% 6738-4981 (11719) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40.9¢ | $173.24 | $423.41 | +$250.17 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55.2¢ | $279.28 | — | -$279.28 | |
SH Sharky6999 | Downavg 98.6¢ | $933.03 | $946.22 | +$13.19 | 98% 6865-164 (7029) |
AN Anon455 | Downavg 48.8¢ | $200.19 | $381.37 | +$181.17 | 56% 2860-2290 (5150) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 52.3¢ | $177.88 | $187.04 | +$9.16 | 64% 58431-33076 (91507) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52.3¢ | $100.02 | — | -$100.02 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 41.6¢ | $77.85 | $187.04 | +$109.18 | |
HS HsilverbasherCTR | Upavg 36.5¢ | $140.8 | — | -$140.8 | 12% 18311-132999 (151310) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 47.7¢ | $81.61 | $120.34 | +$38.73 | 51% 7723-7285 (15008) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47.7¢ | $57.35 | $120.34 | +$62.99 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 24.6¢ | $24.26 | — | -$24.26 | |
DU DubaiitalyCTR | Upavg 57.1¢ | $150 | — | -$150 | 49% 178-187 (365) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $5.54 | $11.54 | +$6 | 58% 51029-37178 (88207) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $1.46 | $2.97 | +$1.51 | 46% 8032-9481 (17513) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20126-19292 (39418) |
Invested
$948.73
Value
—
PnL
-$938.96
Record
54%
14480-12314 (26794)
Invested
$723.65
Value
$645.76
PnL
-$77.89
Record
67%
99627-48014 (147641)
Both legs:
Invested
$452.52
Value
$423.41
PnL
-$29.12
Record
57%
6738-4981 (11719)
Both legs:
Invested
$933.03
Value
$946.22
PnL
+$13.19
Record
98%
6865-164 (7029)
Invested
$200.19
Value
$381.37
PnL
+$181.17
Record
56%
2860-2290 (5150)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$177.88
Value
$187.04
PnL
+$9.16
Record
64%
58431-33076 (91507)
Both legs:
Invested
$140.8
Value
—
PnL
-$140.8
Record
12%
18311-132999 (151310)
Invested
$81.61
Value
$120.34
PnL
+$38.73
Record
51%
7723-7285 (15008)
Both legs:
Invested
$150
Value
—
PnL
-$150
Record
49%
178-187 (365)
Invested
$5.54
Value
$11.54
PnL
+$6
Record
58%
51029-37178 (88207)
Invested
$1.46
Value
$2.97
PnL
+$1.51
Record
46%
8032-9481 (17513)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20126-19292 (39418)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
tmsd-test
CTRUp — $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
peepeepoopoo24
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Sharky6999
Down — $946.22
Anon455
Down — $381.37
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Hsilverbasher
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Dubaiitaly
CTRUp — $0
PBot-6
Down — $11.54