Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3AM ET

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Down (70%) · Down at 99¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 30

Up2¢Down98¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 70%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$378.76

Smart Money Entry

69.3¢ → 98.5¢

+42% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up2%

Down99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares4,100

Combined PnL+$383.66

Up3 traders

Total Value$35.96

Total Shares108

Combined PnL-$4.91

Down — 70%Up — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 61.7¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$294.15	68% 99314-47652 (146966)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 70.4¢	$619.22	$663.67	+$44.45	57% 6681-4952 (11633)
HS Hsilverbasher	Downavg 89.4¢	$662.99	$635.95	-$27.03	12% 18295-132992 (151287)
AN Anon455	Downavg 81¢	$357.32	$395.01	+$37.69	56% 2838-2261 (5099)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 57.1¢	$67.51	$339.2	+$23.91	64% 58239-32920 (91159)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 62.4¢	$31.43	$41.93	+$10.5	51% 7486-7050 (14536)
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$28.1	$28.68	+$0.57	46% 7844-9262 (17106)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 50¢	$7.46	$7.46	+$0	58% 50970-37111 (88081)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 48.8¢	$7.96	$3.67	-$4.29	55% 50404-41004 (91408)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 14¢	$4.8	$3.61	-$1.19	51% 20036-19191 (39227)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,148.98

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$294.15

Record

68%

99314-47652 (146966)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$619.22

Value

$663.67

PnL

+$44.45

Record

57%

6681-4952 (11633)

Hsilverbasher

Down

Invested

$662.99

Value

$635.95

PnL

-$27.03

Record

12%

18295-132992 (151287)

Anon455

Down

Invested

$357.32

Value

$395.01

PnL

+$37.69

Record

56%

2838-2261 (5099)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$67.51

Value

$339.2

PnL

+$23.91

Record

64%

58239-32920 (91159)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$31.43

Value

$41.93

PnL

+$10.5

Record

51%

7486-7050 (14536)

0x0d2d...7ff5CTR<$100

Invested

$28.1

Value

$28.68

PnL

+$0.57

Record

46%

7844-9262 (17106)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$7.46

Value

$7.46

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

50970-37111 (88081)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$7.96

Value

$3.67

PnL

-$4.29

Record

55%

50404-41004 (91408)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

$3.61

PnL

-$1.19

Record

51%

20036-19191 (39227)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.