Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12PM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
6
Down 67%
1 arb excluded
$946.53
-$32.77
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Downavg 69.2¢ | $353.34 | $331.43 | -$21.91 | 57% 6721-4971 (11692) |
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100 | Upavg 35.4¢ | $306.25 | $203 | -$103.25 | 12% 18309-132996 (151305) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 41.4¢ | $83.95 | $203 | +$119.05 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.4¢ | $222.3 | — | -$222.3 | |
RA rabadabadoo | Downavg 63¢ | $470.39 | $213.33 | -$6.57 | 59% 22313-15676 (37989) |
LO Loser12 | Downavg 63.3¢ | $100 | $158.06 | +$58.06 | — 4-1 (5) |
AN Anon455CTR<$100 | Upavg 29.9¢ | $61.71 | — | -$61.71 | 56% 2856-2282 (5138) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 65.1¢ | $34.44 | $40.71 | +$6.26 | 51% 7651-7211 (14862) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 21.8¢ | $6.9 | — | -$6.9 | 51% 20092-19247 (39339) |
Invested
$353.34
Value
$331.43
PnL
-$21.91
Record
57%
6721-4971 (11692)
Invested
$306.25
Value
$203
PnL
-$103.25
Record
12%
18309-132996 (151305)
Both legs:
Invested
$470.39
Value
$213.33
PnL
-$6.57
Record
59%
22313-15676 (37989)
Invested
$100
Value
$158.06
PnL
+$58.06
Record
—
4-1 (5)
Invested
$61.71
Value
—
PnL
-$61.71
Record
56%
2856-2282 (5138)
Invested
$34.44
Value
$40.71
PnL
+$6.26
Record
51%
7651-7211 (14862)
Invested
$6.9
Value
—
PnL
-$6.9
Record
51%
20092-19247 (39339)
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