Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11AM ET

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Up (50%) · Up at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 30

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 50%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$504.13

Smart Money Entry

71.4¢ → 100¢

+40% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares3,018

Combined PnL+$438.74

Down4 traders

Total Value$759.52

Total Shares6,793

Combined PnL-$942.87

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 67.3¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	+$424.47	67% 99557-47950 (147507)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 78.7¢	$728	$716.5	-$11.5	57% 6711-4969 (11680)
BI bibana100CTR	Downavg 23.3¢	$1.3K	$355.61	-$919.14	— 1-1 (2)
HS Hsilverbasher	Upavg 72.5¢	$277.39	$313.8	+$36.41	12% 18307-132995 (151302)
38 38791873984189CTR	Downavg 48¢	$229.91	$239.43	+$9.52	46% 7951-9381 (17332)
TH thismonthCTR	Downavg 24.9¢	$140.18	$84.41	-$55.77	34% 594-1147 (1741)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Downavg 20.5¢	$57.55	$80.07	+$22.52	56% 2854-2282 (5136)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 90.5¢	$47.9	$37.26	-$10.64	51% 7617-7193 (14810)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$1,243.01

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$424.47

Record

67%

99557-47950 (147507)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$728

Value

$716.5

PnL

-$11.5

Record

57%

6711-4969 (11680)

bibana100CTR

Down

Invested

$1,274.75

Value

$355.61

PnL

-$919.14

Record

—

1-1 (2)

Hsilverbasher

Invested

$277.39

Value

$313.8

PnL

+$36.41

Record

12%

18307-132995 (151302)

38791873984189CTR

Down

Invested

$229.91

Value

$239.43

PnL

+$9.52

Record

46%

7951-9381 (17332)

thismonthCTR

Down

Invested

$140.18

Value

$84.41

PnL

-$55.77

Record

34%

594-1147 (1741)

Anon455CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$57.55

Value

$80.07

PnL

+$22.52

Record

56%

2854-2282 (5136)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$47.9

Value

$37.26

PnL

-$10.64

Record

51%

7617-7193 (14810)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.