Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8PM ET
Resolved Down. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
13
Down 75%
1 arb excluded
$10.3K
-$132.2
Smart Money Signal
9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 84.4¢ | $3.9K | $3.4K | -$502.04 | 64% 58160-32830 (90990) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 56.7¢ | $2.7K | $3.1K | +$429.39 | 68% 99153-47509 (146662) |
HS Hsilverbasher | Downavg 83.7¢ | $1.6K | $1.8K | +$236.89 | 12% 18272-132972 (151244) |
FI fiankee | Downavg 49.4¢ | $291.94 | $590.59 | +$298.65 | 56% 1004-804 (1808) |
AL almach | Downavg 66.6¢ | $249.1 | $373.78 | +$124.68 | 55% 48365-39926 (88291) |
BI bibana100CTR | Upavg 22.8¢ | $681.53 | — | -$681.53 | — 1-0 (1) |
BO bosona | Downavg 70.5¢ | $220 | $312.25 | +$92.25 | 55% 49592-39819 (89411) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 71¢ | $213 | $300 | +$87 | 55% 50399-41001 (91400) |
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR | Upavg 45.8¢ | $340.49 | — | -$340.49 | 57% 6667-4941 (11608) |
PB PBot-6 | Downavg 45¢ | $90 | $200 | +$110 | 58% 50945-37076 (88021) |
AN Anon455ARB<$100 | Downavg 77.2¢ | $109.45 | $94.26 | -$15.19 | 56% 2802-2223 (5025) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 77.2¢ | $72.81 | $94.26 | +$21.45 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 16.9¢ | $36.64 | — | -$36.64 | |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 68.7¢ | $45.15 | $54.4 | +$9.25 | 51% 7374-6993 (14367) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 21¢ | $6.3 | — | +$3.75 | 51% 19993-19160 (39153) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 49.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 58% 37751-26971 (64722) |
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$3,925.69
Value
$3.4K
PnL
-$502.04
Record
64%
58160-32830 (90990)
Invested
$2,697.61
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$429.39
Record
68%
99153-47509 (146662)
Invested
$1,610.36
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$236.89
Record
12%
18272-132972 (151244)
Invested
$291.94
Value
$590.59
PnL
+$298.65
Record
56%
1004-804 (1808)
Invested
$249.1
Value
$373.78
PnL
+$124.68
Record
55%
48365-39926 (88291)
Invested
$681.53
Value
—
PnL
-$681.53
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Invested
$220
Value
$312.25
PnL
+$92.25
Record
55%
49592-39819 (89411)
Invested
$213
Value
$300
PnL
+$87
Record
55%
50399-41001 (91400)
Invested
$340.49
Value
—
PnL
-$340.49
Record
57%
6667-4941 (11608)
Invested
$90
Value
$200
PnL
+$110
Record
58%
50945-37076 (88021)
Invested
$109.45
Value
$94.26
PnL
-$15.19
Record
56%
2802-2223 (5025)
Both legs:
Invested
$45.15
Value
$54.4
PnL
+$9.25
Record
51%
7374-6993 (14367)
Invested
$6.3
Value
—
PnL
+$3.75
Record
51%
19993-19160 (39153)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
37751-26971 (64722)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $3.4K
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $3.1K
Hsilverbasher
Down — $1.8K
fiankee
Down — $590.59
almach
Down — $373.78
bibana100
CTRUp — $0
bosona
Down — $312.25
mo-money
Down — $300
peepeepoopoo24
CTRUp — $0
PBot-6
Down — $200