Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7AM ET

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Down (86%) · Down at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 29

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 86%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$34.75

Smart Money Entry

72.5¢ → 100¢

+38% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,278

Combined PnL+$37.08

Up1 trader

Total Value$2.03

Total Shares15

Combined PnL-$2.32

Down — 86%Up — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 76.8¢	$736.5	$759.13	+$22.63	57% 6624-4907 (11531)
AN Anon455	Downavg 82.9¢	$170.48	$175.8	+$5.33	56% 2781-2196 (4977)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 51¢	$102.01	$100.01	-$2	58% 50880-37022 (87902)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 66.7¢	$54.05	$65.47	+$11.42	51% 7170-6800 (13970)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 50¢	$15.2	$15.2	+$0	58% 37558-26812 (64370)
TM tmsd-test<$100	Downavg 71¢	$8.51	$8.21	-$0.3	54% 14429-12264 (26693)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 29¢	$4.35	$2.03	-$2.32	51% 19907-19065 (38972)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$736.5

Value

$759.13

PnL

+$22.63

Record

57%

6624-4907 (11531)

Anon455

Down

Invested

$170.48

Value

$175.8

PnL

+$5.33

Record

56%

2781-2196 (4977)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$102.01

Value

$100.01

PnL

-$2

Record

58%

50880-37022 (87902)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$54.05

Value

$65.47

PnL

+$11.42

Record

51%

7170-6800 (13970)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$15.2

Value

$15.2

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

37558-26812 (64370)

tmsd-test<$100

Down

Invested

$8.51

Value

$8.21

PnL

-$0.3

Record

54%

14429-12264 (26693)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$4.35

Value

$2.03

PnL

-$2.32

Record

51%

19907-19065 (38972)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.