Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4AM ET

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Up (67%) · Up at 94¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 29

Up94¢Down6¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 67%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$106.8

Smart Money Entry

89.1¢ → 94.3¢

+6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up94%

Down6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$974.32

Total Shares1,005

Combined PnL-$110.66

Down2 traders

Total Value$58.65

Total Shares117

Combined PnL+$3.86

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 93.2¢	$893.05	$796.59	-$96.46	57% 6617-4895 (11512)
AN Anon455<$100	Upavg 90.3¢	$93.79	$91.91	-$1.89	56% 2776-2194 (4970)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 50¢	$43.5	$43.5	+$0	58% 37531-26786 (64317)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 92.1¢	$54.63	$42.32	-$12.31	51% 7133-6748 (13881)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 47¢	$31.02	$33	+$1.98	58% 50863-37010 (87873)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Downavg 46.3¢	$23.77	$25.65	+$1.88	68% 99024-47353 (146377)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$893.05

Value

$796.59

PnL

-$96.46

Record

57%

6617-4895 (11512)

Anon455<$100

Invested

$93.79

Value

$91.91

PnL

-$1.89

Record

56%

2776-2194 (4970)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$43.5

Value

$43.5

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

37531-26786 (64317)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$54.63

Value

$42.32

PnL

-$12.31

Record

51%

7133-6748 (13881)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$31.02

Value

$33

PnL

+$1.98

Record

58%

50863-37010 (87873)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$23.77

Value

$25.65

PnL

+$1.88

Record

68%

99024-47353 (146377)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.6%

94.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.