Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2AM ET
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Down
7
Down 100%
$1.7K
$174.16
72.4¢ → 100¢
+38% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 64.5¢ | $663.78 | $752.92 | +$89.14 | 68% 99015-47342 (146357) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Downavg 60.8¢ | $268.25 | $360.49 | +$92.24 | 57% 6611-4895 (11506) |
AN Anon455 | Downavg 86.2¢ | $223.85 | $216.91 | -$6.94 | 56% 2774-2191 (4965) |
DE devonpoll | Downavg 98¢ | $180.09 | $170.51 | -$9.58 | 51% 19879-19038 (38917) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 88¢ | $158.99 | $159.3 | +$0.32 | 64% 57842-32579 (90421) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 59.3¢ | $28.66 | $39.56 | +$10.9 | 51% 7108-6729 (13837) |
BE beeemw<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $5 | $3.09 | -$1.91 | 78% 296-84 (380) |
Invested
$663.78
Value
$752.92
PnL
+$89.14
Record
68%
99015-47342 (146357)
Invested
$268.25
Value
$360.49
PnL
+$92.24
Record
57%
6611-4895 (11506)
Invested
$223.85
Value
$216.91
PnL
-$6.94
Record
56%
2774-2191 (4965)
Invested
$180.09
Value
$170.51
PnL
-$9.58
Record
51%
19879-19038 (38917)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$158.99
Value
$159.3
PnL
+$0.32
Record
64%
57842-32579 (90421)
Invested
$28.66
Value
$39.56
PnL
+$10.9
Record
51%
7108-6729 (13837)
Invested
$5
Value
$3.09
PnL
-$1.91
Record
78%
296-84 (380)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.