Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1AM ET
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Up (75%) · Up at 0.5¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Up
4
Up 75%
3 arb excluded
$3.9K
$68.51
79.5¢ → 0.5¢
-99% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUp at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 60.8¢ | $2.7K | $2.6K | -$30.16 | 68% 98984-47279 (146263) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 43.4¢ | $1.2K | $1.9K | +$764.16 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60.8¢ | $1.5K | $699.85 | -$794.32 | |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Upavg 69.4¢ | $459.02 | $540.73 | +$81.72 | 57% 6603-4890 (11493) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 24.9¢ | $148.79 | $373.11 | +$224.32 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 69.4¢ | $310.23 | $167.63 | -$142.6 | |
TM tmsd-testARB<$100 | Upavg 32.9¢ | $393.42 | $319.49 | -$70.83 | 54% 14408-12237 (26645) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.9¢ | $223.88 | $193.73 | -$30.58 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 94.4¢ | $166.01 | $125.76 | -$40.25 | |
AN Anon455CTR | Upavg 80¢ | $242.94 | $269.54 | +$26.59 | 56% 2726-2153 (4879) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 20.3¢ | $25.89 | $71.19 | +$45.3 | 51% 7062-6703 (13765) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 70¢ | $10.65 | $7.61 | -$3.04 | 51% 19871-19020 (38891) |
BE beeemwCTR<$100 | Upavg 81¢ | $5 | $4.66 | -$0.34 | 78% 295-84 (379) |
Invested
$2,671.44
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$30.16
Record
68%
98984-47279 (146263)
Both legs:
Invested
$459.02
Value
$540.73
PnL
+$81.72
Record
57%
6603-4890 (11493)
Both legs:
Invested
$393.42
Value
$319.49
PnL
-$70.83
Record
54%
14408-12237 (26645)
Both legs:
Invested
$242.94
Value
$269.54
PnL
+$26.59
Record
56%
2726-2153 (4879)
Invested
$25.89
Value
$71.19
PnL
+$45.3
Record
51%
7062-6703 (13765)
Invested
$10.65
Value
$7.61
PnL
-$3.04
Record
51%
19871-19020 (38891)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.66
PnL
-$0.34
Record
78%
295-84 (379)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.