Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11AM ET
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Up (71%) · Up at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Up
7
Up 71%
$1.3K
$225.67
58.9¢ → 100¢
+70% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUp at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Upavg 51.8¢ | $455.07 | $736.19 | +$281.12 | 57% 6635-4921 (11556) |
HS Hsilverbasher | Upavg 81.8¢ | $153.88 | $158.87 | +$4.99 | 12% 18228-132947 (151175) |
PL ply-pm2 | Upavg 64.6¢ | $125.72 | $119.27 | -$6.44 | 51% 7227-6854 (14081) |
AN Anon455 | Upavg 95.1¢ | $99.41 | $102.24 | +$2.83 | 56% 2784-2202 (4986) |
TM tmsd-test<$100 | Upavg 43¢ | $80.84 | $94 | +$13.16 | 54% 14444-12274 (26718) |
AO aosdijfCTR | Downavg 4.1¢ | $149.19 | $79.2 | -$69.99 | 9% 45-443 (488) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $4 | $4 | +$0 | 58% 37618-26852 (64470) |
Invested
$455.07
Value
$736.19
PnL
+$281.12
Record
57%
6635-4921 (11556)
Invested
$153.88
Value
$158.87
PnL
+$4.99
Record
12%
18228-132947 (151175)
Invested
$125.72
Value
$119.27
PnL
-$6.44
Record
51%
7227-6854 (14081)
Invested
$99.41
Value
$102.24
PnL
+$2.83
Record
56%
2784-2202 (4986)
Invested
$80.84
Value
$94
PnL
+$13.16
Record
54%
14444-12274 (26718)
Invested
$149.19
Value
$79.2
PnL
-$69.99
Record
9%
45-443 (488)
Invested
$4
Value
$4
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
37618-26852 (64470)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.