Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10PM ET
Resolved Up. 27% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
11
Up 13%
5 arb excluded
$4.5K
-$594.49
Smart Money Signal
3 of 11 top traders (27%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 56.7¢ | $2.6K | $1.9K | -$781.6 | 68% 99306-47640 (146946) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 66¢ | $1.2K | $1.9K | +$630.12 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56.7¢ | $1.4K | — | $-1.4K | |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 84.9¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$4.97 | 64% 58184-32863 (91047) |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Upavg 71¢ | $869.65 | $827.45 | -$42.2 | 57% 6672-4946 (11618) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 71¢ | $587.65 | $827.45 | +$239.8 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 31.4¢ | $281.99 | — | -$281.99 | |
NE never-stop-clickingCTR<$100 | Downavg 5¢ | $99.99 | — | -$99.99 | 32% 92-196 (288) |
AO aosdijfCTR | Downavg 28.7¢ | $287 | — | -$287 | 9% 45-449 (494) |
FI fiankeeCTR | Downavg 49.5¢ | $290.55 | — | -$290.55 | 56% 1004-804 (1808) |
AN Anon455ARB<$100 | Downavg 56.1¢ | $209.93 | $63 | -$146.93 | 56% 2802-2227 (5029) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56.1¢ | $152.67 | — | -$152.67 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 90.9¢ | $57.26 | $63 | +$5.74 | |
AL almachARB<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $158.6 | $76 | -$82.6 | 55% 48369-39928 (88297) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 79¢ | $60.03 | $76 | +$15.96 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44¢ | $98.56 | — | -$98.56 | |
38 38791873984189CTR | Downavg 46.2¢ | $202.79 | — | -$202.79 | — |
MO mo-moneyARB<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $128.2 | $38 | -$90.2 | 55% 50403-41002 (91405) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44¢ | $98.56 | — | -$98.56 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 78¢ | $29.64 | $38 | +$8.36 | |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Downavg 50.2¢ | $97.43 | — | -$97.43 | 55% 49620-39845 (89465) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 47.5¢ | $22.84 | — | -$22.84 | 51% 7416-7015 (14431) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $2.4 | — | -$2.4 | 58% 50956-37091 (88047) |
IM Imgonnadoit | Upavg 43.7¢ | $600 | $0.01 | +$307.34 | 37% 157-270 (427) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Downavg 46.2¢ | $42.52 | — | +$96.19 | 59% 22164-15500 (37664) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20005-19176 (39181) |
Invested
$2,636.63
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$781.6
Record
68%
99306-47640 (146946)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$1,669.23
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$4.97
Record
64%
58184-32863 (91047)
Invested
$869.65
Value
$827.45
PnL
-$42.2
Record
57%
6672-4946 (11618)
Both legs:
Invested
$99.99
Value
—
PnL
-$99.99
Record
32%
92-196 (288)
Invested
$287
Value
—
PnL
-$287
Record
9%
45-449 (494)
Invested
$290.55
Value
—
PnL
-$290.55
Record
56%
1004-804 (1808)
Invested
$209.93
Value
$63
PnL
-$146.93
Record
56%
2802-2227 (5029)
Both legs:
Invested
$158.6
Value
$76
PnL
-$82.6
Record
55%
48369-39928 (88297)
Both legs:
Invested
$202.79
Value
—
PnL
-$202.79
Record
—
Invested
$128.2
Value
$38
PnL
-$90.2
Record
55%
50403-41002 (91405)
Both legs:
Invested
$97.43
Value
—
PnL
-$97.43
Record
55%
49620-39845 (89465)
Invested
$22.84
Value
—
PnL
-$22.84
Record
51%
7416-7015 (14431)
Invested
$2.4
Value
—
PnL
-$2.4
Record
58%
50956-37091 (88047)
Invested
$600
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$307.34
Record
37%
157-270 (427)
Invested
$42.52
Value
—
PnL
+$96.19
Record
59%
22164-15500 (37664)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20005-19176 (39181)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $1.7K
peepeepoopoo24
ARBArbitrage — excluded
never-stop-clicking
CTRDown — $0
aosdijf
CTRDown — $0
fiankee
CTRDown — $0
Anon455
ARBArbitrage — excluded
almach
ARBArbitrage — excluded
38791873984189
CTRDown — $0
mo-money
ARBArbitrage — excluded