Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9PM ET
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (80%) · Down at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Down
5
Down 80%
$1.3K
-$27.24
89.1¢ → 100¢
+12% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 97.2¢ | $832.1 | $854.97 | +$22.86 | 64% 57769-32502 (90271) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Downavg 81.5¢ | $269.38 | $261.6 | -$7.78 | 57% 6591-4880 (11471) |
AN Anon455 | Downavg 74.1¢ | $181.27 | $122.31 | -$58.97 | 56% 2651-2105 (4756) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 61.6¢ | $31.45 | $42.71 | +$11.27 | 51% 6965-6645 (13610) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 12¢ | $1.7 | $7.08 | +$5.38 | 51% 19858-18996 (38854) |
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$832.1
Value
$854.97
PnL
+$22.86
Record
64%
57769-32502 (90271)
Invested
$269.38
Value
$261.6
PnL
-$7.78
Record
57%
6591-4880 (11471)
Invested
$181.27
Value
$122.31
PnL
-$58.97
Record
56%
2651-2105 (4756)
Invested
$31.45
Value
$42.71
PnL
+$11.27
Record
51%
6965-6645 (13610)
Invested
$1.7
Value
$7.08
PnL
+$5.38
Record
51%
19858-18996 (38854)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.