Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9AM ET
Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
12
Down 75%
1 arb excluded
$6.2K
$838.84
Smart Money Signal
9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$110.95 | 57% 6553-4857 (11410) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49¢ | $796.05 | $1.6K | +$830.14 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.9¢ | $719.19 | — | -$719.19 | |
SH Sharky6999 | Downavg 99¢ | $976.07 | $985.93 | +$9.86 | 98% 6822-159 (6981) |
AN Anon455 | Downavg 52.9¢ | $574 | $1.1K | +$497.49 | 56% 2623-2078 (4701) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 43¢ | $324.6 | $754 | +$429.4 | 68% 98750-47046 (145796) |
TM tmsd-testCTR | Upavg 32.3¢ | $926.05 | — | -$698.3 | 54% 14354-12163 (26517) |
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 65.6¢ | $186.11 | $217.18 | +$31.07 | 51% 6782-6478 (13260) |
BE beeemw | Downavg 59¢ | $272.56 | $461.97 | +$189.41 | 78% 281-81 (362) |
BO bosona | Downavg 46.1¢ | $199.16 | $432.34 | +$233.18 | 55% 49235-39489 (88724) |
DE devonpollCTR | Upavg 67.8¢ | $107.21 | — | -$162.46 | 51% 19760-18914 (38674) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 47¢ | $141 | $300 | +$159 | 55% 50025-40645 (90670) |
AL almach | Downavg 47¢ | $141 | $300 | +$159 | 55% 47989-39589 (87578) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $10.75 | — | -$10.75 | 58% 60103-43871 (103974) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Downavg 39.5¢ | $4.05 | $6 | +$1.95 | 66% 98507-50941 (149448) |
Invested
$1,515.24
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$110.95
Record
57%
6553-4857 (11410)
Both legs:
Invested
$976.07
Value
$985.93
PnL
+$9.86
Record
98%
6822-159 (6981)
Invested
$574
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$497.49
Record
56%
2623-2078 (4701)
Invested
$324.6
Value
$754
PnL
+$429.4
Record
68%
98750-47046 (145796)
Invested
$926.05
Value
—
PnL
-$698.3
Record
54%
14354-12163 (26517)
Invested
$186.11
Value
$217.18
PnL
+$31.07
Record
51%
6782-6478 (13260)
Invested
$272.56
Value
$461.97
PnL
+$189.41
Record
78%
281-81 (362)
Invested
$199.16
Value
$432.34
PnL
+$233.18
Record
55%
49235-39489 (88724)
Invested
$107.21
Value
—
PnL
-$162.46
Record
51%
19760-18914 (38674)
Invested
$141
Value
$300
PnL
+$159
Record
55%
50025-40645 (90670)
Invested
$141
Value
$300
PnL
+$159
Record
55%
47989-39589 (87578)
Invested
$10.75
Value
—
PnL
-$10.75
Record
58%
60103-43871 (103974)
Invested
$4.05
Value
$6
PnL
+$1.95
Record
66%
98507-50941 (149448)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
peepeepoopoo24
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Sharky6999
Down — $985.93
Anon455
Down — $1.1K
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $754
tmsd-test
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm2
Down — $217.18
beeemw
Down — $461.97
bosona
Down — $432.34
devonpoll
CTRUp — $0
mo-money
Down — $300