Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8AM ET

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Down (71%) · Down at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$658.02

Smart Money Entry

77.3¢ → 99.7¢

+29% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up2 traders

Total Value$764.16

Total Shares1,550

Combined PnL+$562.42

Down5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,967

Combined PnL+$95.59

Up — 29%Down — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TM tmsd-testCTR	Upavg 15¢	$228.74	$761.57	+$532.83	54% 14353-12157 (26510)
AN Anon455	Downavg 82.6¢	$686.86	$719.37	+$32.51	56% 2623-2077 (4700)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 73.5¢	$439.27	$476.98	+$37.71	57% 6551-4852 (11403)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 86.9¢	$373.52	$385.49	+$11.97	66% 98506-50940 (149446)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 50¢	$100.01	$100.01	+$0	58% 50774-36908 (87682)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 64¢	$40.24	$53.64	+$13.4	51% 6762-6452 (13214)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 11¢	$16.2	$2.59	+$29.59	51% 19757-18903 (38660)

tmsd-testCTR

Invested

$228.74

Value

$761.57

PnL

+$532.83

Record

54%

14353-12157 (26510)

Anon455

Down

Invested

$686.86

Value

$719.37

PnL

+$32.51

Record

56%

2623-2077 (4700)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$439.27

Value

$476.98

PnL

+$37.71

Record

57%

6551-4852 (11403)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$373.52

Value

$385.49

PnL

+$11.97

Record

66%

98506-50940 (149446)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$100.01

Value

$100.01

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

50774-36908 (87682)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$40.24

Value

$53.64

PnL

+$13.4

Record

51%

6762-6452 (13214)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$16.2

Value

$2.59

PnL

+$29.59

Record

51%

19757-18903 (38660)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.