Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7AM ET
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Down (56%) · Down at 100¢ · $449 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Down
9
Down 56%
$448.65
$1.46
81.8¢ → 100¢
+22% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Downavg 89.1¢ | $350.17 | $340.08 | -$10.09 | 57% 6543-4847 (11390) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 61.4¢ | $32.42 | $45.08 | +$12.66 | 51% 6745-6431 (13176) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $12.5 | $12.5 | +$0 | 58% 50762-36893 (87655) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Upavg 23.3¢ | $10.04 | $11.83 | +$1.79 | 55% 49205-39457 (88662) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $11.99 | $11.75 | -$0.24 | 62% 43568-26495 (70063) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Upavg 22¢ | $8.36 | $10.45 | +$2.09 | 55% 47933-39536 (87469) |
BE beeemw<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $15 | $9.49 | -$5.51 | 78% 279-79 (358) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Upavg 22¢ | $3.6 | $4.51 | +$0.9 | 55% 50003-40631 (90634) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 20.4¢ | $3.1 | $2.97 | -$0.13 | 51% 19747-18896 (38643) |
Invested
$350.17
Value
$340.08
PnL
-$10.09
Record
57%
6543-4847 (11390)
Invested
$32.42
Value
$45.08
PnL
+$12.66
Record
51%
6745-6431 (13176)
Invested
$12.5
Value
$12.5
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
50762-36893 (87655)
Invested
$10.04
Value
$11.83
PnL
+$1.79
Record
55%
49205-39457 (88662)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$11.99
Value
$11.75
PnL
-$0.24
Record
62%
43568-26495 (70063)
Invested
$8.36
Value
$10.45
PnL
+$2.09
Record
55%
47933-39536 (87469)
Invested
$15
Value
$9.49
PnL
-$5.51
Record
78%
279-79 (358)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$4.51
PnL
+$0.9
Record
55%
50003-40631 (90634)
Invested
$3.1
Value
$2.97
PnL
-$0.13
Record
51%
19747-18896 (38643)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.