Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6AM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
5
Down 60%
2 arb excluded
$2.4K
-$300.59
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 64.8¢ | $1.4K | $1.2K | -$198.98 | 68% 98734-47033 (145767) |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Downavg 56.7¢ | $705.98 | $688.27 | -$17.71 | 57% 6543-4847 (11390) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56.7¢ | $390.03 | $688.27 | +$298.24 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 40.4¢ | $315.95 | — | -$315.95 | |
TM tmsd-testARB<$100 | Upavg 41.6¢ | $697.84 | $264.02 | -$84.49 | 54% 14345-12152 (26497) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.6¢ | $308.8 | — | -$228.91 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.3¢ | $119.6 | $264.02 | +$144.42 | |
AN Anon455CTR | Upavg 60.7¢ | $215.91 | — | -$215.91 | 56% 2619-2076 (4695) |
PB PBot-6 | Downavg 50.5¢ | $99.76 | $197.47 | +$97.72 | 58% 50762-36893 (87655) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 45.6¢ | $46.14 | $72.91 | +$26.77 | 51% 6745-6431 (13176) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 42.4¢ | $10.18 | — | -$10.18 | 51% 19747-18896 (38643) |
Invested
$1,365.96
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$198.98
Record
68%
98734-47033 (145767)
Invested
$705.98
Value
$688.27
PnL
-$17.71
Record
57%
6543-4847 (11390)
Both legs:
Invested
$697.84
Value
$264.02
PnL
-$84.49
Record
54%
14345-12152 (26497)
Both legs:
Invested
$215.91
Value
—
PnL
-$215.91
Record
56%
2619-2076 (4695)
Invested
$99.76
Value
$197.47
PnL
+$97.72
Record
58%
50762-36893 (87655)
Invested
$46.14
Value
$72.91
PnL
+$26.77
Record
51%
6745-6431 (13176)
Invested
$10.18
Value
—
PnL
-$10.18
Record
51%
19747-18896 (38643)
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