Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5PM ET

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Up (43%) · Up at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 28

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

$19.1

Smart Money Entry

79.3¢ → 100¢

+26% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,571

Combined PnL-$214.9

Down4 traders

Total Value$795.48

Total Shares2,209

Combined PnL+$234

Up — 43%Down — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 46.5¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$116.16	57% 6579-4872 (11451)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.5¢	$580.07	$853.08	+$273.01
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.5¢	$807	$650.15	-$156.85
AN Anon455	Upavg 67¢	$1.7K	$1.4K	-$255.75	56% 2631-2086 (4717)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 51.5¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$87.5	64% 57632-32369 (90001)
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.5¢	$381.04	$810.23	+$429.19
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.5¢	$652.26	$310.57	-$341.69
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$26.47	74% 102188-36332 (138520)
IM ImgonnadoitCTR	Downavg 43.8¢	$1.5K	$709.38	+$246.83	34% 91-173 (264)
TH thismonth<$100	Upavg 37.4¢	$60	$68.03	+$67.33	34% 577-1128 (1705)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 42.2¢	$45.76	$33.12	-$12.64	51% 6912-6596 (13508)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 51.5¢	$33.97	$32.97	-$0.99	58% 37423-26662 (64085)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 48¢	$19.2	$20	+$0.8	58% 50817-36958 (87775)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,387.07

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$116.16

Record

57%

6579-4872 (11451)

Both legs:

Up$580.0742.5¢+$273.01

Down$80746.5¢-$156.85

Anon455

Invested

$1,670.6

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$255.75

Record

56%

2631-2086 (4717)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,033.3

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$87.5

Record

64%

57632-32369 (90001)

Both legs:

Up$381.0435.5¢+$429.19

Down$652.2651.5¢-$341.69

BoneOhio

Invested

$1,048.33

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$26.47

Record

74%

102188-36332 (138520)

ImgonnadoitCTR

Down

Invested

$1,549.72

Value

$709.38

PnL

+$246.83

Record

34%

91-173 (264)

thismonth<$100

Invested

$60

Value

$68.03

PnL

+$67.33

Record

34%

577-1128 (1705)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$45.76

Value

$33.12

PnL

-$12.64

Record

51%

6912-6596 (13508)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$33.97

Value

$32.97

PnL

-$0.99

Record

58%

37423-26662 (64085)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$19.2

Value

$20

PnL

+$0.8

Record

58%

50817-36958 (87775)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.