Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4AM ET
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Up (100%) · Up at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Up
5
Up 100%
$3.5K
$290.07
84.3¢ → 99.7¢
+18% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUp at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 85.6¢ | $2.4K | $2.6K | +$196.49 | 68% 98724-47025 (145749) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Upavg 81.6¢ | $397.09 | $447.65 | +$50.56 | 57% 6537-4845 (11382) |
AN Anon455 | Upavg 76.5¢ | $278.88 | $337.03 | +$58.14 | 56% 2615-2073 (4688) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 95¢ | $59.72 | $44.69 | -$15.03 | 51% 6701-6393 (13094) |
BE beeemw<$100 | Upavg 82¢ | $15 | $14.91 | -$0.09 | 78% 277-79 (356) |
Invested
$2,439.72
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$196.49
Record
68%
98724-47025 (145749)
Invested
$397.09
Value
$447.65
PnL
+$50.56
Record
57%
6537-4845 (11382)
Invested
$278.88
Value
$337.03
PnL
+$58.14
Record
56%
2615-2073 (4688)
Invested
$59.72
Value
$44.69
PnL
-$15.03
Record
51%
6701-6393 (13094)
Invested
$15
Value
$14.91
PnL
-$0.09
Record
78%
277-79 (356)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.