Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2PM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
10
Up 56%
3 arb excluded
$8.2K
$221.02
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 64.2¢ | $5.0K | $4.8K | -$165.68 | 68% 98755-47050 (145805) |
TM tmsd-test | Upavg 52.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$925.83 | 54% 14359-12176 (26535) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Upavg 70.2¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$0.5 | 57% 6567-4864 (11431) |
AN Anon455ARB<$100 | Downavg 19¢ | $384.08 | $347.61 | -$36.47 | 56% 2628-2079 (4707) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53.5¢ | $185.86 | $347.61 | +$161.75 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 19¢ | $198.22 | — | -$198.22 | |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 14.7¢ | $515.55 | — | -$515.55 | 64% 57630-32365 (89995) |
PL ply-pm2 | Upavg 72.3¢ | $205.71 | $192.89 | -$12.82 | 51% 6853-6542 (13395) |
BO BonereaperARB<$100 | Downavg 42.9¢ | $110.45 | $112 | +$1.55 | 66% 98656-51035 (149691) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.9¢ | $65.75 | — | -$65.75 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39.9¢ | $44.7 | $112 | +$67.3 | |
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100 | Downavg 61.8¢ | $109.54 | $72.11 | -$37.43 | 12% 18047-132832 (150879) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 61.8¢ | $77.97 | — | -$77.97 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 43.8¢ | $31.57 | $72.11 | +$40.54 | |
AL almach<$100 | Upavg 42¢ | $49.87 | $99.71 | +$49.84 | 55% 48023-39636 (87659) |
TH thismonthCTR<$100 | Downavg 55.1¢ | $42 | — | -$42 | 34% 577-1125 (1702) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $11.7 | — | -$11.7 | 58% 60135-43896 (104031) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Downavg 2.5¢ | $7.4 | — | -$7.4 | 55% 50075-40703 (90778) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19801-18940 (38741) |
Invested
$5,011.01
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$165.68
Record
68%
98755-47050 (145805)
Invested
$1,145.23
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$925.83
Record
54%
14359-12176 (26535)
Invested
$1,185.48
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$0.5
Record
57%
6567-4864 (11431)
Invested
$384.08
Value
$347.61
PnL
-$36.47
Record
56%
2628-2079 (4707)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$515.55
Value
—
PnL
-$515.55
Record
64%
57630-32365 (89995)
Invested
$205.71
Value
$192.89
PnL
-$12.82
Record
51%
6853-6542 (13395)
Invested
$110.45
Value
$112
PnL
+$1.55
Record
66%
98656-51035 (149691)
Both legs:
Invested
$109.54
Value
$72.11
PnL
-$37.43
Record
12%
18047-132832 (150879)
Both legs:
Invested
$49.87
Value
$99.71
PnL
+$49.84
Record
55%
48023-39636 (87659)
Invested
$42
Value
—
PnL
-$42
Record
34%
577-1125 (1702)
Invested
$11.7
Value
—
PnL
-$11.7
Record
58%
60135-43896 (104031)
Invested
$7.4
Value
—
PnL
-$7.4
Record
55%
50075-40703 (90778)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19801-18940 (38741)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $4.8K
tmsd-test
Up — $1.3K
peepeepoopoo24
Up — $1.2K
Anon455
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm2
Up — $192.89
Bonereaper
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Hsilverbasher
ARBArbitrage — excluded
almach
Up — $99.71
thismonth
CTRDown — $0