Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1PM ET

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Up (40%) · Up at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 40%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$82.8

Smart Money Entry

68¢ → 100¢

+47% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,254

Combined PnL+$26.57

Down6 traders

Total Value$506.82

Total Shares2,159

Combined PnL+$56.23

Up — 40%Down — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 61¢	$936.59	$980.7	+$44.1	57% 6564-4863 (11427)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 44.5¢	$254.06	$285.5	+$31.44	58% 37375-26622 (63997)
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$209.88	$208.93	-$0.95	74% 102141-36314 (138455)
DE devonpollCTR	Downavg 36¢	$69.9	$109.87	+$39.98	51% 19791-18936 (38727)
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100	Downavg 5.5¢	$73.63	$73.41	-$0.22	54% 14357-12173 (26530)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 97.4¢	$56.57	$35.94	-$20.63	51% 6829-6526 (13355)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Downavg 75¢	$45	$30	-$15	56% 2627-2078 (4705)
BO Bonereaper<$100	Upavg 23¢	$3.45	$7.5	+$4.05	66% 98635-51024 (149659)
BE beeemwCTR<$100	Downavg 73¢	$5	$5.03	+$0.03	78% 283-81 (364)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 50¢	$3	$3	+$0	56% 57594-44483 (102077)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$936.59

Value

$980.7

PnL

+$44.1

Record

57%

6564-4863 (11427)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$254.06

Value

$285.5

PnL

+$31.44

Record

58%

37375-26622 (63997)

BoneOhio

Invested

$209.88

Value

$208.93

PnL

-$0.95

Record

74%

102141-36314 (138455)

devonpollCTR

Down

Invested

$69.9

Value

$109.87

PnL

+$39.98

Record

51%

19791-18936 (38727)

tmsd-testCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$73.63

Value

$73.41

PnL

-$0.22

Record

54%

14357-12173 (26530)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$56.57

Value

$35.94

PnL

-$20.63

Record

51%

6829-6526 (13355)

Anon455CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$45

Value

$30

PnL

-$15

Record

56%

2627-2078 (4705)

Bonereaper<$100

Invested

$3.45

Value

$7.5

PnL

+$4.05

Record

66%

98635-51024 (149659)

beeemwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$5.03

PnL

+$0.03

Record

78%

283-81 (364)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

57594-44483 (102077)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.