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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12PM ET

Resolved Up. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Down 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$999.38

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%
Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares2,022
Combined PnL$-1.5K
Up3 traders
Total Value$399.38
Total Shares399
Combined PnL+$202.52
Down — 70%Up — 30%
PE
peepeepoopoo24CTR
Down

Invested

$806.51

Value

—

PnL

-$806.51

Record

57%

6564-4863 (11427)

0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100
Up

Invested

$576.85

Value

$600

PnL

+$23.15

Record

68%

98754-47049 (145803)

Both legs:

Up$364.6860.8¢+$235.3
Down$212.1245.8¢-$212.15
AN
Anon455CTR
Down

Invested

$278.8

Value

—

PnL

-$278.8

Record

56%

2627-2078 (4705)

Polkadot-Frog
Up

Invested

$195.84

Value

$362.51

PnL

+$166.66

Record

64%

57630-32365 (89995)

MO
mo-moneyCTR
Down

Invested

$127.72

Value

—

PnL

-$127.72

Record

55%

50030-40647 (90677)

TM
tmsd-testCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$67.76

Value

—

PnL

-$67.76

Record

54%

14357-12173 (26530)

AL
almachCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$85.91

Value

—

PnL

-$85.91

Record

55%

47994-39590 (87584)

PL
ply-pm2CTR
Down

Invested

$110.84

Value

—

PnL

-$110.84

Record

51%

6829-6526 (13355)

BO
bosonaCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$28.02

Value

—

PnL

-$28.02

Record

55%

49241-39490 (88731)

DE
devonpoll<$100
Up

Invested

$5.72

Value

$31.13

PnL

+$31.26

Record

51%

19791-18936 (38727)

BO
Bonereaper<$100
Up

Invested

$1.15

Value

$5.75

PnL

+$4.6

Record

66%

98635-51024 (149659)

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Market Info

Condition ID
0x08eaf845...697e12
Slug
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-28-2026-12pm-et

Traders in this Market

PE

peepeepoopoo24

CTR

Down — $0

-$806.51
0X

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$23.15
AN

Anon455

CTR

Down — $0

-$278.8

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $362.51

+$166.66
MO

mo-money

CTR

Down — $0

-$127.72
TM

tmsd-test

CTR

Down — $0

-$67.76
AL

almach

CTR

Down — $0

-$85.91
PL

ply-pm2

CTR

Down — $0

-$110.84
BO

bosona

CTR

Down — $0

-$28.02
DE

devonpoll

Up — $31.13

+$31.26
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