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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9PM ET
Resolved Up. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Down 40%
Total Value
$125.13
Combined PnL
-$255.07
Smart Money Signal
Down
2 of 5 top traders (40%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares217
Combined PnL-$268.95
Up3 traders
Total Value$125.13
Total Shares125
Combined PnL+$13.87
Down — 40%Up — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN Anon455CTR | Downavg 68.1¢ | $230.89 | — | -$230.89 | 56% 2595-2041 (4636) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Upavg 33¢ | $32 | $50 | +$18 | 66% 98425-50873 (149298) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Upavg 71.2¢ | $65.75 | $60.13 | -$5.62 | 57% 6519-4829 (11348) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 55.3¢ | $38.06 | — | -$38.06 | 51% 6588-6273 (12861) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 90¢ | $13.5 | $15 | +$1.5 | 51% 19701-18860 (38561) |
AN
Anon455CTRInvested
$230.89
Value
—
PnL
-$230.89
Record
56%
2595-2041 (4636)
BO
Bonereaper<$100Invested
$32
Value
$50
PnL
+$18
Record
66%
98425-50873 (149298)
PE
peepeepoopoo24<$100Invested
$65.75
Value
$60.13
PnL
-$5.62
Record
57%
6519-4829 (11348)
PL
ply-pm2CTR<$100Invested
$38.06
Value
—
PnL
-$38.06
Record
51%
6588-6273 (12861)
DE
devonpoll<$100Invested
$13.5
Value
$15
PnL
+$1.5
Record
51%
19701-18860 (38561)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xb602c724...9227d4
Slug
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-27-2026-9pm-et