Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8PM ET
8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Down (80%) · Down at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Down
10
Down 80%
$1.6K
$145.88
76.3¢ → 100¢
+31% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN Anon455 | Downavg 76.3¢ | $543.42 | $587.93 | +$44.51 | 56% 2590-2035 (4625) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Downavg 83.3¢ | $523.44 | $565.98 | +$42.53 | 57% 6515-4824 (11339) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 85.5¢ | $106.24 | $106.84 | +$0.6 | 66% 98415-50861 (149276) |
PB PBot-6 | Downavg 50¢ | $103.5 | $103.5 | +$0 | 58% 50705-36831 (87536) |
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100 | Upavg 24¢ | $45.84 | $95.5 | +$49.66 | 54% 14320-12113 (26433) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 67.6¢ | $40.15 | $50.24 | +$10.09 | 51% 6564-6251 (12815) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 95.1¢ | $32.48 | $29.53 | -$2.95 | 55% 47864-39475 (87339) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 94.1¢ | $19.19 | $16.68 | -$2.51 | 56% 49131-39392 (88523) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 14.8¢ | $11.7 | $4.77 | +$3.87 | 51% 19689-18852 (38541) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $1.22 | $1.29 | +$0.07 | 12% 17894-132716 (150610) |
Invested
$543.42
Value
$587.93
PnL
+$44.51
Record
56%
2590-2035 (4625)
Invested
$523.44
Value
$565.98
PnL
+$42.53
Record
57%
6515-4824 (11339)
Invested
$106.24
Value
$106.84
PnL
+$0.6
Record
66%
98415-50861 (149276)
Invested
$103.5
Value
$103.5
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
50705-36831 (87536)
Invested
$45.84
Value
$95.5
PnL
+$49.66
Record
54%
14320-12113 (26433)
Invested
$40.15
Value
$50.24
PnL
+$10.09
Record
51%
6564-6251 (12815)
Invested
$32.48
Value
$29.53
PnL
-$2.95
Record
55%
47864-39475 (87339)
Invested
$19.19
Value
$16.68
PnL
-$2.51
Record
56%
49131-39392 (88523)
Invested
$11.7
Value
$4.77
PnL
+$3.87
Record
51%
19689-18852 (38541)
Invested
$1.22
Value
$1.29
PnL
+$0.07
Record
12%
17894-132716 (150610)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.