Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7PM ET

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Up (75%) · Up at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$107.24

Smart Money Entry

71.1¢ → 100¢

+41% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,253

Combined PnL-$98.94

Down1 trader

Total Value$50.61

Total Shares123

Combined PnL-$8.3

Up — 75%Down — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Upavg 65.6¢	$650.08	$593.78	-$56.3	56% 2584-2031 (4615)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Upavg 73.2¢	$491.13	$450.84	-$40.29	57% 6514-4821 (11335)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.2¢	$315.28	$256.19	-$59.09
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.6¢	$175.85	$194.64	+$18.8
SH Sharky6999	Upavg 99¢	$404.56	$302.4	-$102.16	98% 6812-158 (6970)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 72.6¢	$110.47	$128.31	+$17.84	66% 98405-50847 (149252)
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.9¢	$52.5	$99.98	+$47.48
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.6¢	$57.97	$28.34	-$29.63
TM tmsd-test	Upavg 28¢	$55.74	$115.26	+$59.52	54% 14311-12101 (26412)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 43.1¢	$58.91	$50.61	-$8.3	51% 6539-6233 (12772)

Anon455

Invested

$650.08

Value

$593.78

PnL

-$56.3

Record

56%

2584-2031 (4615)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Invested

$491.13

Value

$450.84

PnL

-$40.29

Record

57%

6514-4821 (11335)

Both legs:

Up$315.2873.2¢-$59.09

Down$175.8536.6¢+$18.8

Sharky6999

Invested

$404.56

Value

$302.4

PnL

-$102.16

Record

98%

6812-158 (6970)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$110.47

Value

$128.31

PnL

+$17.84

Record

66%

98405-50847 (149252)

Both legs:

Up$52.533.9¢+$47.48

Down$57.9772.6¢-$29.63

tmsd-test

Invested

$55.74

Value

$115.26

PnL

+$59.52

Record

54%

14311-12101 (26412)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$58.91

Value

$50.61

PnL

-$8.3

Record

51%

6539-6233 (12772)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.