Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7AM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
8
Down 50%
3 arb excluded
$3.1K
$27.63
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 64.8¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$33.55 | 68% 98423-46705 (145128) |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Downavg 80.8¢ | $895.11 | $791.95 | -$103.17 | 57% 6479-4795 (11274) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 80.8¢ | $639.97 | $791.95 | +$151.98 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 30.2¢ | $255.14 | — | -$255.14 | |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $150 | $150 | +$0 | 64% 57243-32020 (89263) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $75 | $150 | +$75 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $75 | — | -$75 | |
AN Anon455 | Downavg 79.8¢ | $192.2 | $240.98 | +$48.78 | 56% 2563-2017 (4580) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 61.5¢ | $49.25 | $66.87 | +$17.62 | 51% 6357-6072 (12429) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 61.5¢ | $41.15 | $66.87 | +$25.72 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 14.7¢ | $8.1 | — | -$8.1 | |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 36.7¢ | $16.98 | — | -$16.98 | 51% 19576-18764 (38340) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $18.62 | — | -$18.62 | 56% 49018-39247 (88265) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $18.62 | — | -$18.62 | 55% 49815-40428 (90243) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $23.51 | $23.51 | +$11.52 | 58% 59914-43736 (103650) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Upavg 59.2¢ | $13.61 | — | -$14.19 | 55% 47790-39367 (87157) |
BE beeemw<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $10 | $12.2 | +$2.2 | 78% 267-75 (342) |
Invested
$1,823.72
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$33.55
Record
68%
98423-46705 (145128)
Invested
$895.11
Value
$791.95
PnL
-$103.17
Record
57%
6479-4795 (11274)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$150
Value
$150
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
57243-32020 (89263)
Both legs:
Invested
$192.2
Value
$240.98
PnL
+$48.78
Record
56%
2563-2017 (4580)
Invested
$49.25
Value
$66.87
PnL
+$17.62
Record
51%
6357-6072 (12429)
Both legs:
Invested
$16.98
Value
—
PnL
-$16.98
Record
51%
19576-18764 (38340)
Invested
$18.62
Value
—
PnL
-$18.62
Record
56%
49018-39247 (88265)
Invested
$18.62
Value
—
PnL
-$18.62
Record
55%
49815-40428 (90243)
Invested
$23.51
Value
$23.51
PnL
+$11.52
Record
58%
59914-43736 (103650)
Invested
$13.61
Value
—
PnL
-$14.19
Record
55%
47790-39367 (87157)
Invested
$10
Value
$12.2
PnL
+$2.2
Record
78%
267-75 (342)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $1.9K
peepeepoopoo24
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Anon455
Down — $240.98
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
devonpoll
CTRUp — $0
bosona
CTRUp — $0
mo-money
CTRUp — $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $23.51
almach
CTRUp — $0