Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6PM ET

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Down (71%) · Down at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 27

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

$133.04

Smart Money Entry

52.6¢ → 100¢

+90% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 7 top traders (71%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,851

Combined PnL+$143.32

Up2 traders

Total Value$62.8

Total Shares237

Combined PnL-$10.28

Down — 71%Up — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 53¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$132.55	64% 57400-32165 (89565)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 50.1¢	$634.69	$694.5	+$59.8	57% 6514-4821 (11335)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.1¢	$330.66	$422.79	+$92.13
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.3¢	$304.03	$271.71	-$32.33
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Downavg 77.9¢	$513.71	$386.98	-$126.74	56% 2584-2031 (4615)
└ Down leg	Downavg 77.9¢	$333.18	$299.35	-$33.82
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.8¢	$180.53	$87.62	-$92.91
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 49¢	$369.76	$386.79	+$17.03	59% 21625-14927 (36552)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 35.9¢	$222.96	$306.84	+$83.88	66% 98405-50847 (149252)
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.9¢	$131.04	$224.75	+$93.71
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.1¢	$91.92	$82.09	-$9.83
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100	Downavg 54.2¢	$118.95	$152.69	+$33.74	51% 6539-6233 (12772)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.2¢	$85.66	$110.69	+$25.04
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.8¢	$33.3	$42	+$8.7
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 51¢	$69.38	$68.31	-$1.07	58% 50695-36819 (87514)
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100	Upavg 34.5¢	$66.22	$57.59	-$8.63	54% 14311-12101 (26412)
SH Sharky6999<$100	Downavg 99¢	$19.04	$13.46	-$5.58	98% 6812-158 (6970)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 15.2¢	$6.86	$5.21	-$1.65	51% 19680-18843 (38523)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 40¢	$1.6	$2	+$0.4	12% 17890-132710 (150600)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$2,190.3

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$132.55

Record

64%

57400-32165 (89565)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$634.69

Value

$694.5

PnL

+$59.8

Record

57%

6514-4821 (11335)

Both legs:

Down$330.6650.1¢+$92.13

Up$304.0340.3¢-$32.33

Anon455ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$513.71

Value

$386.98

PnL

-$126.74

Record

56%

2584-2031 (4615)

Both legs:

Down$333.1877.9¢-$33.82

Up$180.5361.8¢-$92.91

rabadabadoo

Down

Invested

$369.76

Value

$386.79

PnL

+$17.03

Record

59%

21625-14927 (36552)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$222.96

Value

$306.84

PnL

+$83.88

Record

66%

98405-50847 (149252)

Both legs:

Down$131.0435.9¢+$93.71

Up$91.9243.1¢-$9.83

ply-pm2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$118.95

Value

$152.69

PnL

+$33.74

Record

51%

6539-6233 (12772)

Both legs:

Down$85.6654.2¢+$25.04

Up$33.323.8¢+$8.7

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$69.38

Value

$68.31

PnL

-$1.07

Record

58%

50695-36819 (87514)

tmsd-testCTR<$100

Invested

$66.22

Value

$57.59

PnL

-$8.63

Record

54%

14311-12101 (26412)

Sharky6999<$100

Down

Invested

$19.04

Value

$13.46

PnL

-$5.58

Record

98%

6812-158 (6970)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$6.86

Value

$5.21

PnL

-$1.65

Record

51%

19680-18843 (38523)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Down

Invested

$1.6

Value

PnL

+$0.4

Record

12%

17890-132710 (150600)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 7 top traders (71%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.