Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6AM ET

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Up (38%) · Up at 97¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 27

Up97¢Down3¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 38%

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

-$838.11

Smart Money Entry

72.9¢ → 96.5¢

+33% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up97%

Down3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares4,475

Combined PnL-$312.37

Down5 traders

Total Value$500.16

Total Shares1,266

Combined PnL-$525.74

Up — 38%Down — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 73.9¢	$3.9K	$3.7K	-$210.78	68% 98394-46667 (145061)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 70.2¢	$908.59	$795.87	-$112.73	57% 6475-4791 (11266)
RA rabadabadooCTR	Downavg 74.3¢	$304.29	$325.01	+$20.72	59% 21483-14744 (36227)
PL ply-pm2CTR	Downavg 56¢	$101.69	$82.36	-$19.33	51% 6340-6042 (12382)
AN Anon455CTR	Downavg 75.5¢	$573.48	$42.57	-$530.91	56% 2561-2017 (4578)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 47¢	$29.34	$31.21	+$1.87	58% 37196-26405 (63601)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 45¢	$17.1	$19	+$1.9	55% 49814-40427 (90241)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 13.9¢	$4.28	$15.42	+$11.14	51% 19565-18744 (38309)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$3,865.53

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$210.78

Record

68%

98394-46667 (145061)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$908.59

Value

$795.87

PnL

-$112.73

Record

57%

6475-4791 (11266)

rabadabadooCTR

Down

Invested

$304.29

Value

$325.01

PnL

+$20.72

Record

59%

21483-14744 (36227)

ply-pm2CTR

Down

Invested

$101.69

Value

$82.36

PnL

-$19.33

Record

51%

6340-6042 (12382)

Anon455CTR

Down

Invested

$573.48

Value

$42.57

PnL

-$530.91

Record

56%

2561-2017 (4578)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$29.34

Value

$31.21

PnL

+$1.87

Record

58%

37196-26405 (63601)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$17.1

Value

$19

PnL

+$1.9

Record

55%

49814-40427 (90241)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

$4.28

Value

$15.42

PnL

+$11.14

Record

51%

19565-18744 (38309)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.7%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.34

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.