Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5AM ET

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Down (80%) · Down at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 27

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 80%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$221.65

Smart Money Entry

86.8¢ → 100¢

+15% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,818

Combined PnL+$206.35

Up2 traders

Total Value$32.5

Total Shares65

Combined PnL+$15.3

Down — 80%Up — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 78.6¢	$940.05	$1.1K	+$174.36	68% 98383-46651 (145034)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 89.7¢	$702.06	$706.86	+$4.8	57% 6471-4790 (11261)
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$468.26	$470.39	+$2.13	74% 101896-36253 (138149)
AN Anon455	Downavg 92¢	$325.49	$334.17	+$8.68	56% 2560-2016 (4576)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 90.9¢	$51.05	$50.2	-$0.85	55% 49813-40427 (90240)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 51¢	$25.36	$39.32	+$13.96	51% 6332-6019 (12351)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 95¢	$36.1	$37.72	+$1.62	55% 47767-39349 (87116)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 94.9¢	$36.06	$37.72	+$1.65	56% 49015-39245 (88260)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 29¢	$14.5	$25	+$10.5	58% 37186-26392 (63578)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 18¢	$2.7	$7.5	+$4.8	51% 19552-18740 (38292)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$940.05

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$174.36

Record

68%

98383-46651 (145034)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$702.06

Value

$706.86

PnL

+$4.8

Record

57%

6471-4790 (11261)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$468.26

Value

$470.39

PnL

+$2.13

Record

74%

101896-36253 (138149)

Anon455

Down

Invested

$325.49

Value

$334.17

PnL

+$8.68

Record

56%

2560-2016 (4576)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$51.05

Value

$50.2

PnL

-$0.85

Record

55%

49813-40427 (90240)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$25.36

Value

$39.32

PnL

+$13.96

Record

51%

6332-6019 (12351)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$36.1

Value

$37.72

PnL

+$1.62

Record

55%

47767-39349 (87116)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$36.06

Value

$37.72

PnL

+$1.65

Record

56%

49015-39245 (88260)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$14.5

Value

$25

PnL

+$10.5

Record

58%

37186-26392 (63578)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$2.7

Value

$7.5

PnL

+$4.8

Record

51%

19552-18740 (38292)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.