Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4PM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
8
Down 63%
2 arb excluded
$1.6K
-$156.69
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 73.6¢ | $615.25 | $698.26 | +$83.01 | 64% 57374-32152 (89526) |
AN Anon455 | Downavg 92.5¢ | $485.38 | $492.71 | +$3.9 | 56% 2575-2024 (4599) |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Upavg 26.4¢ | $348.91 | $205.75 | -$143.16 | 57% 6508-4816 (11324) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 65.4¢ | $134.5 | $205.75 | +$71.25 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 26.4¢ | $214.42 | — | -$214.42 | |
BO bosonaARB<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $128.77 | $86.07 | -$42.7 | 56% 49080-39304 (88384) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 88¢ | $75.74 | $86.07 | +$10.33 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 43¢ | $53.03 | — | -$53.03 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 46.5¢ | $200.09 | — | -$200.09 | 68% 98467-46744 (145211) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 63.5¢ | $57.83 | $73.93 | +$16.09 | 51% 6507-6200 (12707) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $44 | $50 | +$6 | 66% 98395-50832 (149227) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Upavg 43¢ | $131.6 | — | -$56.59 | 55% 49912-40540 (90452) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $33.01 | $16.09 | +$0.45 | 58% 50689-36814 (87503) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 16.9¢ | $9.47 | — | -$9.47 | 51% 19668-18828 (38496) |
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$615.25
Value
$698.26
PnL
+$83.01
Record
64%
57374-32152 (89526)
Invested
$485.38
Value
$492.71
PnL
+$3.9
Record
56%
2575-2024 (4599)
Invested
$348.91
Value
$205.75
PnL
-$143.16
Record
57%
6508-4816 (11324)
Both legs:
Invested
$128.77
Value
$86.07
PnL
-$42.7
Record
56%
49080-39304 (88384)
Both legs:
Invested
$200.09
Value
—
PnL
-$200.09
Record
68%
98467-46744 (145211)
Invested
$57.83
Value
$73.93
PnL
+$16.09
Record
51%
6507-6200 (12707)
Invested
$44
Value
$50
PnL
+$6
Record
66%
98395-50832 (149227)
Invested
$131.6
Value
—
PnL
-$56.59
Record
55%
49912-40540 (90452)
Invested
$33.01
Value
$16.09
PnL
+$0.45
Record
58%
50689-36814 (87503)
Invested
$9.47
Value
—
PnL
-$9.47
Record
51%
19668-18828 (38496)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $698.26
Anon455
Down — $492.71
peepeepoopoo24
ARBArbitrage — excluded
bosona
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm2
Down — $73.93
Bonereaper
Down — $50
mo-money
CTRUp — $0
PBot-6
Down — $16.09
devonpoll
CTRUp — $0